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Dr. William Halal, Sunday, 1-5-14 January 6, 2014

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Dr. William Halal, Sunday, 1-5-14

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/2157-BWB-2014-01-05.mp3

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Guest:  Dr. William (Bill) Halal.  Topics:  Space forecasting for the near and long term.  Please direct all comments and questions regarding Space Show programs/guest(s) to the Space Show blog, http://thespaceshow.wordpress.com.  Comments and questions should be relevant to the specific Space Show program. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are a violation of our copyright and are not permitted without prior written consent, even if for your own use. We do not permit the commercial use of Space Show programs or any part thereof, nor do we permit editing, YouTube clips, or clips placed on other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted, but the quote must be cited or referenced using the proper citation format. Contact The Space Show for further information. In addition, please remember that your Amazon purchases can help support The Space Show/OGLF. See www.onegiantleapfoundation.org/amazon.htm.

We welcomed Dr. William Halal to our program for a 1 hour 48 minute discussion on predictions for both near and long term space development.  In our first segment, we focused on the near term predictions that mostly centered on continued growth of space commercialization and the emergence of space tourism.  Additional topics talked about in the first segment included the Chinese space program and its possible impact on the U.S. space program, heavy lift and SLS, the space media and its potential space tourism accident response, commercial activity on the ISS, and space entrepreneurism.  Dr. Halal also directed our attention to his website, www.techcast.org which will soon migrate to www.technicalglobal.com.  Listeners asked our guest about the biggest challenges facing both commercial space and space tourism, then our guest talked about big growth possibilities with solar satellites.  Issues were addressed regarding our congress, economics, and the tensions among all the players.

In the second segment, we talked about knowledge emerging as the powerful tool of the near to intermediate term.  Dr. Halal suggested tourism would be in place around 2015 and the commercial industry would keep developing to the 2020 range.  John called from Ft. Worth to draw comparisons to our early military and aviation history, suggesting the role of the government might be to continue developing hardware and infrastructure that would eventually enhance the commercial players much the way the military aircraft had dual use with the commercial industry.  John also had comments about asteroid missions which our guest brought up in this segment.  Dr. Halal mentioned the potential of interstellar travel around 2070 and the possibility of solar satellites coming on line much sooner.  We talked about going to Mars and the Moon and about Mars One and Inspiration Mars.  Doug was the next caller and he talked about depots and large rockets, specifically for missions BLEO and the Moon.  Doug brought up SpaceX heavy lift concepts, Martian terraforming, and SpaceX orbital human spaceflight around 2017.  As our program was ending, we talked about the rate of change going on in the world today and its impact on people in different age groups.  He said we all need to be prepared for a turbulent and transformative time as he does not believe current global systems are sustainable and will have to make way for new systems and programs.

Please post your comments/questions on The Space Show blog above.  You can contact our guest through me at drspace@thespaceshow.com or his website.

Comments»

1. Ken Lundermann - January 22, 2014

I must say I am unimpressed by TechCast’s forecasts. During the show, Dr. Halal predicted *orbital* tourist flights by 2015, most likely by Virgin. He was unaware that there is a vast difference between suborbital flight and orbital and that Virgin’s existing craft are strictly suborbital. A glance a TechCast’s webpage (http://www.techcast.org/BreakthroughAnalysis.aspx?ID=76) on space tourism confirms that TechCast is confused about the distinction. I found it difficult to take anything Dr. Halal said seriously after this.

My skepticism was only bolstered by the discussion of space solar power. The analysis seemed to be that space solar power will happen relatively soon simply because it is very attractive on a philosophical level. Economic concerns were brushed aside. It was stated that multiple governments are pursuing it. That is true, but only for a very minimal definition of “pursue”.

This program was pure lalalalaland, which the Space Show doesn’t usually tolerate. How did this one slip past?

2. Curt Holmer - January 8, 2014

Dr. Halal – Very good show. Sorry events kept me from calling in. We’ve spoken briefly in the past on the work of Dr. Bruce Cordell and his concepts of Maslow Windows and the cycles over the past 200 years. During Dr. Cordell’s recent show he reviewed the window criteria and thinks that we are currently setup for another 1960s style jump as far as society goes for technology and self (in the human society form)actualization. In his show he details how all of the indicators of an impending window opening are in place except for a economic revival and unbridled optimism
like we saw at the beginning of the 1960s. He also thinks that this will occur in the arena of space, and by the sounds of it on your show, it sounds like TechCast may be in agreement with that. So my question is this, what does TechCast see in the very near term as getting ready to ‘pop’ that is along the lines of society advancing/world changing like Apollo, the Panama Canal, Pole exploration, Lewis and Clark, etc. That is not in the space relm? I know that as far as space goes, TechCast appears to be looking at late 2030s for a lunar base and Humans on Mars in 2050 along with space based solar power, but this isnt in line with a window opening in the next 2-3 years and lasting for 5. Are there technologies that could be associated with this window window be something more terrestrial based as in the medical community, agriculture, or some other large engineering project like practical large scale ocean desalinization?


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