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Robert (Bob) Zimmerman, Tuesday, 12-3-13 December 4, 2013

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Robert (Bob) Zimmerman, Tuesday, 12-3-13

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/2135-BWB-2013-12-03.mp3

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Guest:  Robert (Bob) Zimmerman.  Topics:  launch competition, commercial space, China, gov. space programs, budget issues.  Please direct all comments and questions regarding Space Show programs/guest(s) to the Space Show blog, http://thespaceshow.wordpress.com.  Comments and questions should be relevant to the specific Space Show program. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are a violation of our copyright and are not permitted without prior written consent, even if for your own use. We do not permit the commercial use of Space Show programs or any part thereof, nor do we permit editing, YouTube clips, or clips placed on other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted, but the quote must be cited or referenced using the proper citation format. Contact The Space Show for further information. In addition, please remember that your Amazon purchases can help support The Space Show/OGLF. See www.onegiantleapfoundation.org/amazon.htm.

We welcomed back Bob Zimmerman for his Tenth Anniversary Space Show program!  During the first segment of this two hour two minute program, Bob addressed many issues and listener concerns starting with the SpaceX Falcon 9 GEO launch success & the looking back to his first Space Show program on Dec. 3, 2003.  He compared and contrasted his comments then to those today. He also blogged about this on his Behindtheblack.com blog at http://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/essays-and-commentaries/exciting-times-in-space.  Listeners expressed their concern about the Chinese space program, their recent lunar landing mission and the day when they can put a human on the Moon.  Listeners wanted to know if this would spark a new space race between China and the U.S.  Bob said no and I agreed with him for slightly different reasons.  However, one of Bob’s consistent and recurring themes (and tonight’s discussion was no different) is that he opposes large government space programs as he says they don’t work.  He provided much evidence for this during our discussion.  During this segment we also talked extensively about launch competition and the benefits from competition in the marketplace.  Listener Al asked about DOD space and if DOD might see the Chinese space program differently.  Bob also mentioned space property rights and he said the existing situation should change based on U.S. law as the model for commercial space to flourish.  There was more talk about the Chinese program which Bob was not too concerned about.  Listen for his reasoning.  John in Ft. Worth called in to also talk about the Chinese program and suggested at some point their success might just humiliate the U.S. into competitive action.  Neither Bob or I thought it was likely that anything would humiliate congress today.  John and Bob then had an interesting discussion on this subject.

In Part 2 of our program, Dr. Lurio called in to talk about being thrilled to the bone by the SpaceX launch and to comment on NewSpace & commercial space issues. Like Bob, he opposes SLS as a big waste.  Bob and Charles then talked about their distaste for large gov. programs such as what JFK created, again saying they don’t work.  Both wondered what space and other things would look like today had JFK not been assassinated.  Dream Chaser was mentioned, again as everyone’s favorite spacecraft.  Al emailed in again to point out the differences in the space perspective of seniors and young people.  Tim called in to mention the Code of Conduct issue with possible international launch standards and how this might hurt the developing US commercial launch business.  I mentioned a Business Week article saying the suborbitals are going to look to R&D flights for repeat customers which they definitely need. Here is the article: www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-11-27/spaceflight-companies-virgin-galactic-xcor-blue-origin-eye-r-and-d-clients.  Toward the end of the program there was more talk about SLS, NASA budget issues, the need to cancel SLS per Bob’s perspective, and economic risks posed to NASA’s planetary science program.  Bob closed out the program with his comments on Inspiration Mars and Mars One, plus a Von Braun comment from 1954 in which it was reported that he said it would take 100 years of research in space to travel to Mars.  Bob said its been 60 years so far and we do not have the capability to do a human flight to Mars today.  Lurio mailed in the last comment about the NASA press conference earlier in the day with his and Bob’s reading that the planetary program was all but dead financially.  The final comments dealt with SLS and the Redirect Mission which Bob completely discounted.

Post your comments/questions on The Space Show blog.  Contact Bob through his blog or zimmerman at nasw dot org.

Dr. Scott Pace, Sunday, 9-1-13 September 1, 2013

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Dr. Scott Pace, Sunday, 9-1-13

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/2078-BWB-2013-09-01.mp3

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Guest: Dr. Scott Pace.  Topics:  U.S. space policy, leadership, international participation, HSF, and the importance of it to our nation and future.  Please direct all comments and questions regarding Space Show programs/guest(s) to the Space Show blog, http://thespaceshow.wordpress.com.  Comments and questions should be relevant to the specific Space Show program. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are a violation of our copyright and are not permitted without prior written consent, even if for your own use. We do not permit the commercial use of Space Show programs or any part thereof, nor do we permit editing, YouTube clips, or clips placed on other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted, but the quote must be cited or referenced using the proper citation format. Contact The Space Show for further information. In addition, please remember that your Amazon purchases can help support The Space Show/OGLF. See www.onegiantleapfoundation.org/amazon.htm

We welcomed back Dr. Scott Pace to the program to discuss our space policy, leadership, the prospects for human spaceflight (HSF), and international participation.  For more information on what Dr. Pace talked about today, see http://thediplomat.com/2013/03/28/american-space-strategy-choose-to-steer-not-drift and www.spacepolicyonline.com/news/logsdon-and-pace-criticize-lack-of-white-house-leadership-on-nasa.  Dr. Pace stated that our national space policy was adrift which we discussed in some detail during this 1 hour 38 minute program.  In the first segment, I asked Dr. Pace to explain why our space policy was and is adrift.  He referred back to the 2010 National U.S. National Space Policy which he largely supported but the human spaceflight portions of it were weak.  We mostly focused on human spaceflight for this Space Show program.  I asked him about the forthcoming NRC Human Spaceflight Study underway for which he had several comments but said policy does not typically come from external organizations.  We talked about weakness in space policy leadership both with the White House and Congress.  Dr. Pace said that he believed HSF to be meaningful to our nation and our future, and he put forth the rational for this throughout both segments of our discussion.  Listener Mike Listner called in to ask questions about the European Code of Conduct which is in an ongoing evaluation process among many countries.  Dr. Paced talked about the concerns and benefits of the Code & I asked if at least in the U.S. the policy makers were considerate of commercial or private space (NewSpace) interests.  He said they were, especially within the State Department.  We also talked about humans to Mars missions, lunar return missions and Cis-lunar development.  Doug called to express his concerns regarding lunar and Cis-lunar missions and at one point Dr. Pace talked about how frontier lines actually move so what may not be doable today may be doable in the near future. 

We started the second segment with a call from John Hunt who talked about the need to have a space transportation system before we can return to the Moon or go anywhere.   This took us into the world of heavy lift rockets, Dream Chaser & routine spaceflight.  We also talked about Falcon Heavy and SLS.  We switched over for ITAR updates which Dr. Pace provided for us.  Space as a political issue for upcoming elections was discussed as were the much talked about NASA asteroid missions.  Near the end, Dr. Pace was asked about the Chinese program & their plans to do an end of the year lunar robotic mission.  Dr. Pace had much to say about the Chinese space program.  Dr. Pace did provide a summary for us saying that there are still great opportunities in space despite the challenges.  He made an excellent case for American space leadership & why its so important for us all. 

Please post your comments/questions on The Space Show blog.  You can reach Dr. Pace through his GWU website or through me.

Michael Listner, Tuesday, 11-27-12 November 28, 2012

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Michael Listner, Tuesday, 11-27-12

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/1902-BWB-2012-11-27.mp3

Guest:  Michael Listner.  Topics:  Space law & policy review for 2012.  Please direct all comments & questions regarding Space Show programs/guest(s) to the Space Show blog, http://thespaceshow.wordpress.com. Comments & questions should be relevant to the specific Space Show program. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are a violation of our copyright & are not permitted without prior written consent, even if for your own use. We do not permit the commercial use of Space Show programs or any part thereof, nor do we permit editing, YouTube clips, or clips placed on other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted, but the quote must be cited or referenced using the proper citation format. Contact The Space Show for further information. We welcomed Michael Listner back to the show to do our first ever annual review of space law issues. Michael had several topics to discuss including the Code of  Contact, Transparency & Confidence-Building Measures (TCBMs), Cube sat regulation, ITAR, Planetary resources & space property rights, Space debris with an emphasis on EnviSat, Austria’s space law in particular the launch of Austria’s first satellite in December, Commercial space in particular limited liability laws, Delineation of air space & outer space, the Moon Treaty & the ascension of Turkey & Saudi Arabia, Rules of Arbitration, & the preservation of Apollo landing sites.  We started with two main space law issues of 2012, the European Code of Conduct & TCBMs.  Michael did a good job explaining the history of these items, where are today with them & what is likely to happen with them in 2013.  We also talked about space taking on the role of being normal & we both pointed out ways in which it interacts with regular law even if consumers are behind a firewall & have no awareness of space law issues.  Our discussion turned toward benefit sharing & this took us into an extensive Moon Treaty discussion. I urge people not blow off what to many of us are radical departures from how we have been conducting space affairs & how we want to see commercial space evolve.  There are longer term potential risks given trends in benefit sharing, more countries signing on to the Moon Treaty, & even listener feedback I get right here on The Space Show.  Michael urged us to pay attention if other nations sign the Moon Treaty, particularly if Russia or China agree to it.  Michael talked about legal theories that can make the Moon Treaty enforceable given it is a legal treaty, even if the U.S. & others do not sign it.  Again, I urge our audience to not discount this potential longer term risk.
     In the second segment, Michael talked about the issue of just where space starts.  He mentioned two theories on this & why it is an important issue. The U.S. position tends to discount the debate & operates as if the 100km point is the edge of space.  It appears we abstain from the debate with the opinion it is a settled issue but evidently not in some circles as it is a hot button issue.  We also talked about the limited liability laws for suborbital space, especially in New Mexico which is having a problem accepting it in its legislature.  We mentioned the potential impact limited liability might have on Spaceport America so it deserves watching.  Michael talked about cubesat regulation & an upcoming European conference on that subject.  He said it is something we need to be carefully watching.  ITAR reform, especially in terms of getting satellites off the munitions list to the dual technology list was also a key issue for the year & will be next year.  We also talked about space debris issues & the impact of ESA’s EnviSat.  As our program was ending, I asked Michael for some future 2013 assessments of hot button issues.  Among those he mentioned included the Code, TCBMs, ITAR, possibly the Moon Treaty & Planetary Resources types of issues.  A listener asked about our withdrawal from the OST but Michael did not think that would mean much. Our last topic dealt with the historical preservation of the Apollo 11 & 17 landing sites.
    Please post your comments/questions on The Space Show blog.  You can email Michael at michael@spacelawsolutions.com.

Dr. Nader Elhefnawy, Friday, 6-8-12 June 8, 2012

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Dr. Nader Elhefnawy, Friday, 6-8-12

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/1791-BWB-2012-06-08.mp3

Guest:  Dr. Nader Elhefnawy.  Topics:  Space warfare reality and hype.  You are invited to comment, ask questions, and discuss the Space Show program/guest(s) on the Space Show blog, http://thespaceshow.wordpress.com. Comments, questions, and any discussion must be relevant and applicable to Space Show programming. Transcripts of Space Show programs are not permitted without prior written consent from The Space Show (even if for personal use) & are a violation of the Space Show copyright. We welcomed Dr. Nader Elhefnawy back to the program to discuss his March 26, 2012 Space Review article, “Why we fall for the hype: contextualizing our thought on space warfare (www.thespacereview.com/article/2052/1).”  This was about a two hour program with a break after the first hour.  Dr. Elhefnawy also has two blogs which may interest you: http://naderelhefnawy.blogspot.com and http://raritania.blogspot.com.  We started our discussion by talking about Dr. Elhefnawy’s interest in the subject, his previous Space Review articles on the subject, and the issue of making accurate predictions.  Nader suggested that there is much hype driving the technology predictions suggesting a possible space warfare outcome that also drive political policy in some instances.  He talked about how technology development in the 19th century had more impact in changing the world than modern era technology.  Our guest cited examples of this throughout our discussion but one example we talked about more so than others dealt with the development of the telegraph.  Dr. Elhefnawy suggested that most of the hyped space weapons systems are not doable in the first place.  Another document he cited about this issue was the Joint Vision 2020 report (www.fs.fed.us/fire/doctrine/genesis_and_evolution/source_materials/joint_vision_2020.pdf).  Nader talked about space weapon systems vulnerabilities and again said that the expectations and hype do not match reality.  Several callers engaged with Nader on cause and reaction, SDI, missile defense, anti-satellite warfare, and the pre-positioning of weapons platforms in space.

In our second segment, I asked our guest how we in the public can best defend ourselves against hype, rhetoric, political agendas, and more given we do not have the expertise to always be able to pick up on the excessive claims and fears.  As you will hear, we remain vulnerable to excessive hype not just on technology and space but on a wide range of things impacting our national and international policy.  In this segment we did talk about technology being developed by China, inquiring if Nader thought this was all hype too.  Nader cited some operational stats to drive home some of his points.  Other issues and game changing technologies that came up in this segment included drones and the launch cost for space access. Nader also talked about the Eureka Paradigm and then he received a question from caller Mike about the European Code of Conduct that we have discussed many times on the show.  Near the end, an interesting comparison was made with aerial warfare from 1914-1918.  In just 7-11 years, aviation had advanced to fighting in the skies in WW1.  More than fifty years after Sputnik, the point was made we are not even at the 1914 equivalent level for space warfare, thus supporting Dr. Elhefnawy’s premise that we fall for the hype in this matter.

Please post your questions/comments on The Space Show blog.  If you want to email our guest, please do so through me and I will forward your note to him.

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