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Dr. John Jurist, Webinar, Sunday, 10-28-12 October 29, 2012

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Dr. John Jurist, Webinar, Sunday, 10-28-12

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/1882-BWB-2012-10-28.mp3

https://vimeo.com/channels/thespaceshow - Webinar Video

Guest:  Dr. John Jurist.  Topics:  This webinar focused on rocket mission, planning, risk & cost analysis using copyright protected spread sheets created by Dr. Jurist.  You are invited to comment, ask questions, and discuss the Space Show program/guest(s) on the Space Show blog, http://thespaceshow.wordpress.com. Comments, questions, and any discussion must be relevant and applicable to Space Show programming. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are not permitted without prior written consent from The Space Show (even if for personal use) & are a violation of the Space Show copyright. We do not permit the commercial use of any Space Show program or part thereof, nor do we permit Space Show programs to be edited, placed on YouTube, or other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted in news articles, papers, academic & research work, but must be cited or referenced using the proper citation format. Contact Dr. Livingston for questions about our copyright and trademark policies. You can see the webinar at https://vimeo.com/channels/thespaceshow.  We welcomed Dr. Jurist to this special two hour webinar on rocket mission, planning, risk, & cost analysis.  Dr. Jurist developed a series of copyrighted spread sheets for this discussion. Callers had the opportunity to “massage” the numbers to see what happened with costs, success probabilities, & how many launches might be needed depending on the rocket being evaluated.  We relied upon published data for all rocket systems discussed, even when only theoretical.  Much of the discussion during this webinar focused on comparisons of Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, SLS, and the Liberty Launch Vehicle. We also used a Falcon 1e as a baseline for comparison.  Dr. Jurist and the callers planned missions to LEO and the ISS, the Moon, and Mars.  We also looked at costs of total payloads delivered into LEO as a function of launch vehicle reliability and cost for multiple launches into the same position in LEO. Even with our two hour discussion, we did not get to cover several spreadsheet pages that rough out launch vehicle configurations and costs as a function of payload and total production runs. We will cover more of this material in the upcoming parts of this webinar series through early next year.  Dr. Jurist addressed questions dealing with simultaneous launches and third party depot operations including fuel sales and space tug services.  Some other subjects were also discussed in the webinar including the recent high altitude jump by Felix Baumgartner and combating the spin.  We also talked about the recent statement made by Felix about not spending money on Mars missions in favor of saving the Earth.

Please post your comments & questions on The Space Show blog.  Dr. Jurist and I will respond to your blog posts.  If you want to talk to Dr. Jurist about his spreadsheet and your possible use for it, you can email him at jmjurist@aol.com.

Space Show-SWF Webinar, On-Orbit Satellite Servicing, Sunday, 8-19-12 August 20, 2012

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Space Show-SWF Webinar, On-Orbit Satellite Servicing, Sunday, 8-19-12

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/1836-BWB-2012-08-19.mp3

https://vimeo.com/channels/thespaceshow  – Webinar Video

Guests:  Brian Weeden, Richard DalBello, Major General, USAF (Retired) James B. Armor, Jr..  This is a SWF sponsored webinar addressing issues related to the on-orbit servicing of satellites.  You are invited to comment, ask questions, & discuss the Space Show program/guest(s) on the Space Show blog, http://thespaceshow.wordpress.com. Comments, questions, & any discussion must be relevant & applicable to Space Show programming. Transcripts of Space Show programs are not permitted without prior written consent from The Space Show (even if for personal use) & are a violation of the Space Show copyright.  PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS IS A TWO HOUR WEBINAR PRODUCTION SPONSORED BY THE SECURE WORLD FOUNDATION (SWF).  YOU CAN VIEW THIS WEBINAR AT https://vimeo.com/channels/thespaceshow.  We welcomed Brian Weeden, Richard DalBello, & Major General, USAF (Retired) James B. Armor, Jr. to the program for an in-depth discussion of on-orbit satellite servicing. This is a new business/industry that is emerging with great interest from governments, the satellite industry, & many other interested parties.  During our first webinar hour, our guests explained satellite on-orbit servicing, why the interest in it, the values on the table, & the economics behind this developing industry.  We heard from the perspective of the satellite operator with Mr. DalBello, from General Armor with the perspective of a company wanting to provide these services plus what they are commercially doing now in this emerging industry.  Gen. Armor talked about the new ATK venture for satellite repair, Vivisat (www.vivisat.com).  He was followed by Mr. Weeden who connected the dots with us regarding the big picture implications for security, stability, & policy.  We talked about liability issues, insurance, & LEO & GEO satellites in terms of their respective economic value & lifespan.  A listener asked about GPS satellites, launch costs, & competition here & abroad.  In fact, Brian mentioned several projects outside the US with the Canadians, Germans, & JAXA.  Toward the end of the first hour, caller Jack asked about testing & reliability, wondering if repairing satellites would reduce reliability engineering & testing on the ground, thus lowering the satellite’s cost given the possibility of on-orbit repair.  Ben followed asking if satellites having a longer life would be sold, comparing this potential to selling real estate once a property has been fully depreciated.

In our webinar second hour, Brian described the DARPA Phoenix Satellite Service project, http://www.darpa.mil/our_work/tto/programs/phoenix.aspx.  The issue of satellite abandonment came up & as you will hear, there is no way to abandon any object in space.  Another issue in this segment was space situational awareness (SSA).  We talked about SSA in LEO, with the new entrepreneurial small satellite companies doing LEO ventures, & the implication of this new industry for launching to & operating in GEO.  Later in this segment, we learned that there was no commercial incentive to address the space debris issue. Don’t miss the analysis behind this statement as its important in understanding the space debris issue.  A listener asked Richard about launch vehicle insurance & premiums, specifically for the Falcon 9.  Also in this segment we talked about the NASA satellite servicing mission, the Restore Mission (http://ssco.gsfc.nasa.gov/robotic_servicing_mission.html).  As our webinar drew to a close, we addressed the importance of a STEM education for our young students & the exciting space projects that today’s students will get to do in their careers. Everyone’s closing comments reflected the future orientation & focus for this evolving industry.

Please post your comments/questions on the blog.  If you want to email our guests, send your note to me & I will forward it for you.

 

Dennis Wingo, Monday, 8-6-12 August 7, 2012

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Dennis Wingo, Monday, 8-6-12

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/1830-BWB-2012-08-06.mp3

Guest:  Dennis Wingo.  Topics:  Economic Development of the Moon.  You are invited to comment, ask questions, and discuss the Space Show program/guest(s) on the Space Show blog, http://thespaceshow.wordpress.com. Comments, questions, and any discussion must be relevant and applicable to Space Show programming. Transcripts of Space Show programs are not permitted without prior written consent from The Space Show (even if for personal use) & are a violation of the Space Show copyright. We welcomed Dennis Wingo back to the program to discuss his July 16, 2012 blog article and concept, “Changing the Conversation about the Economic Development of the Moon.”  You can find his article at http://denniswingo.wordpress.com.  We started our first segment of this nearly two hour program with a shout out to NASA, JPL, & the entire Curiosity team for an outstanding job with landing Curiosity on Mars.  Dennis then pointed out that MSL and Curiosity cost about half of a Nimitz Super Carrier.  Dennis then talked about heavy lift and the fact that modern technology, on orbit fuel depots, orbital dynamics, and ISRU usage all provide reasonable and cost-effective alternatives to the need for heavy lift.  In this discussion, he also included the use of a lunar 3D printer.  Dennis listed several new technologies and applications so don’t miss this section.  Dennis next outlined a plan to eventually have boots on the lunar surface at both poles for water and development.  He would start of with robotics. He noted a preference for the north pole.  We talked about our present day capability to get to either lunar pole.  Doug called in from S. California to talk about telerobotics using telemedicine as an example.  During this discussion, we learned that in the use of robotics, about 90%  represents the robots while 10% represents the people operating, servicing, repairing, and maintaining the robots.
In our second segment, listener Larry asked Dennis about timelines.  Dennis suggested by 2020 we could be back on the Moon.  He broke this down in stages to explain why it would take so long to undertake this mission.  He then said we needed a mindset change to go back to the Moon.  The mindset change enables seeing the Moon first for economic development and then science as a secondary objective.  We talked about the international potential for such a lunar economic mission (private, not government), Another listener asked our guest if a Netscape Moment was essential for developing lunar commerce.  Michael called in to talk about the potential legal & regulatory risks for lunar economic missions.  This too was an interesting & challenging discussion, don’t miss it.  Tim called to ask about the use of space tugs and specific launch vehicles as well as new combinations of rocket fuel. Dennis offered us important closing comments about financing such missions, launch cost issues of concern, and allowing government to dictate our future.  Please post your comments/questions on the blog.
If you want to send an email to Dennis Wingo, you can do so through me & I will forward it to him.
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