Frank Stratford, Friday, 5-17-13 May 18, 2013
Posted by The Space Show in Uncategorized.Tags: " SpaceX, Bigelow Aerospace, billionaire investors, charity space model, commercial space success, commercial spaceflight, Curiosity, due diligence, failed mission consequences, Frank Stratford, human factors, human spaceflight to Mars., Inspiration Mars, markets, Mars Drive, Mars one, NASA, NASA spinoffs, private space companies, public/private partnerships, repeat customers., return on investment, revenue generation, space financing, space industry business models, space tourism, Stratolaunch
1 comment so far
Frank Stratford, Friday, 5-17-13
http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/2010-BWB-2013-05-17.mp3
Guest: Frank Stratford. Topics: Commercial space and space travel business models and revenue generation. Please direct all comments and questions regarding Space Show programs/guest(s) to the Space Show blog, http://thespaceshow.wordpress.com. Comments and questions should be relevant to the specific Space Show program. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are a violation of our copyright and are not permitted without prior written consent, even if for your own use. We do not permit the commercial use of Space Show programs or any part thereof, nor do we permit editing, YouTube clips, or clips placed on other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted, but the quote must be cited or referenced using the proper citation format. Contact The Space Show for further information.
We welcomed Frank Stratford back to the program to discuss various commercial space business models, including nonspace revenue generating goals and objectives. Frank is the founder of MarsDrive so for more information, visit their website at www.marsdrive.com. During the first segment of our 1 hour 42 minute program, Frank introduced us to the topic in his April 22, 2013 Space Review article, “The Business of Space Travel” (www.thespacereview.com/article/2281/1). Frank talked about the need to generate nonspace revenue while building up the space company & space revenue R&D, activities, & markets. He cited SpaceX, Bigelow, & Blue Origins as examples. This led to a discussion about markets & financing, plus estimated costs for a human spaceflight mission to Mars. Frank compared the Mars One $6 billion estimate to his own estimate from his research to be $15 billion. Our first caller asked if big name investors associated with these early commercial space ventures created an expectation of success and may in fact turn out to not have been such a good idea. The detailed discussion included ROI, Stratolaunch and the revenue cycle gap from up front/early capital needs to revenue generation later on in the project’s cycle. We talked about the nonprofit or charity model and Inspiration Mars came to mind. I entered the discussion with comments about the need for repeat customers, a commercial space success to model, unrealistic assumptions, the lack of due diligence, and the difficulty in cost estimates, especially when the cost of getting to the destination (the Moon for example) is unknown at this time. Surrey Space & Technology was also brought up as an example of a good business to model.
In the second segment, our called pointed out a Moon & Back interview with Robert Bigelow in which our caller said Bob said he went into the r/e business to fund his space activities. Later, he email in additional comments suggesting that just because a space venture or idea is not funded does not mean it’s a bad idea or concept. He then advocated NASA support such as with COTS and Commercial Crew. Public/private partnerships were advocated as a good way to move forward with space development and exploration. Frank was then asked if a failed commercial project would hurt the industry. He said it was possible. Another question came in regarding paying attention to human factors and if solutions would be available at the same time as engineering technology, financing, and maybe markets. Frank said only if work moved forward on human factor solutions at the same time and at a similar rate. He also advocated his own organization working the problems. Listen to his reasoning behind this. As the program was nearing close, Frank was asked if Curiosity found proof of life in the past or now, even the most basic life, if it would make HSF to Mars more of a priority. Don’t miss Frank’s response. In summary, Frank talked about the need for continuous incremental development.
Please post your comments/questions on The Space Show blog above. If you want to email Frank Stratford, you can do so through me at drspace@thespaceshow.com.
Robert (Bob) Zimmerman, Tuesday, 3-26-13 March 27, 2013
Posted by The Space Show in Uncategorized.Tags: " Falcon 9 launches, " SpaceX, "Genesis, Antares launch vehicle, Apollo 8, Ariane 5 & 6, Bigelow Aerospace, caving, commercial space, fuel depots, fusion rocket., Golden Spike, human factors for long duration spaceflight, ILS, Inspiration Mars, Iranian rockets, launch market, NASA HSF, NASA public outreach, NASA science missions, NASA Sequestration, North Korean rockets, Orbital Sciences, Proton rocket, reusable launch systems, RLV demand, RLV economics, Robert (Bob) Zimmerman, Sarah Brightman & ISS, Senator Rubio, space markets, spaceports, Stratolaunch, suborbital flight., The Story of Apollo 8, Virgin Galactic powered test flights
1 comment so far
Robert (Bob) Zimmerman, Tuesday, 3-26-13
http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/1981-BWB-2013-03-26.mp3
Guest: Robert (Bob) Zimmerman. Topics: Space news, company updates, and more. Please direct all comments and questions regarding Space Show programs/guest(s) to the Space Show blog, http://thespaceshow.wordpress.com. Comments and questions should be relevant to the specific Space Show program. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are a violation of our copyright and are not permitted without prior written consent, even if for your own use. We do not permit the commercial use of Space Show programs or any part thereof, nor do we permit editing, YouTube clips, or clips placed on other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted, but the quote must be cited or referenced using the proper citation format. Contact The Space Show for further information.
We welcomes Bob Zimmerman back for a two hour wide ranging discussion on space news, company updates, sequestration, policy, and more. Be sure to check out his blog, http://behindtheblack.com. Bob started out talking about the e-book release of his book, “Genesis, The Story of Apollo 8.” He then talked about the upcoming Falcon 9 launches, their importance and significance. Bob mentioned ILS and the Proton rocket which is having its problems causing insurance rates to rise. He said the Russians will absorb all insurance cost increases to keep Proton at a price advantage point. This opened the door to a discussion about SpaceX and price competiveness in the launch industry. Bob switched gears to the suborbitals and said we should be seeing Virgin powered tests soon. He also talked about Stratolaunch per a recent Parabolic Arc article. Bob was talking reusability and the RLV so I asked him if he was aware of economic analysis and data that was not supportive of an RLV short of a substantial increase in launch demand. Bob had much to say about this with his opinion. The RLV economic issue continued to be discussed in both segments of our program. Tim called in about it as well. We talked about Sen. Rubio and his budget amendment suggesting NASA divest itself of unused assets & use the saved money for commercial space. Bob then brought up sequestration and the announcement that NASA will be shutting down all public outreach but they will keep their PR arm going for their projects and missions. We also mentioned Sarah Brightman and both her ISS and Virgin space tourism efforts. Near the close of this segment, Inspiration Mars was discussed and as you will hear, Bob is skeptical, citing human factors & other reasons for his opinion. Larry asked about North Korean rockets and threats to the U.S. west coast. Bob said he took them seriously though their rocket was not yet ready for prime time. Bob also threw in Iranian rockets and threats and said he was more concerned about advances by Iran than N. Korea at this time.
In segment two, we talked about both the science side of NASA and the HSF side. I’m sure you will find the comparison and mission summaries of interest. John called in from Atlanta to raise yet again the question of reusability. He thought it would be enhanced with the use of orbiting fuel depots. Bob was skeptical. Don’t miss this discussion. I asked both Bob and John about Inspiration Mars, Jim emailed in a comment about Falcon 1 relative to comments being made by Bob, and we talked about the upcoming Orbital Sciences Antares launch. We got into the subject of risk taking and Bob and I talked about mining risks as well as caving risks. As Bob is an accomplished caver, he had much to say about both mining and caving. Near the end, we got a call about various spaceports in different states and spaceport commercial success so far. Bob concluded saying that we are in an unstable world which could absolutely adversely impact all aspects of space and commercial space development and progress.
Please post your comments on The Space Show blog.
Tom Olson, Monday, 12-31-12 January 1, 2013
Posted by The Space Show in Uncategorized.Tags: " Neil Armstrong, " SpaceX, 3 D Printing, Arianne 5, Atlas 5, Boeing CST 100, Chinese Space Program, CubeSat, Curiosity, cyber warfare, Dragon, economics, EML2 missions, entrepreneurial space, ESA, Falcon 9. , Falcon Heavy, Golden Spike, human spaceflight, IAC in Beijing, ISDC, ISS, ITAR modification, Japanese space program, Jesco von Puttkamer, liability laws, lunar base, Mars one, Messenger, MSL, NASA budget, NewSpace Business Plan Competition, North Korean space program, NSS, on orbit fuel depots, Planetary Resources, Reda Anderson, Russian launchers, sequestration, SLS, space capsules, Space Review for 2012, space robotics, Space Settlement Act of 1988, space settlement policy, space shuttles, Spaceport America, Stratolaunch, suborbital flights, Tom Olson, ULA, Virgin, Warp Drive, winged spacecraft, XCOR
add a comment
Tom Olson, Monday, 12-31-12
http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/1921-BWB-2012-12-31.mp3
2012 Year End Review & Analysis for Space Development
Guest: Tom Olson. Topics: The year 2012 is reviewed from the space perspective and we look forward to space development in 2013. Please direct all comments and questions regarding Space Show programs/guest(s) to the Space Show blog, http://thespaceshow.wordpress.com. Comments and questions should be relevant to the specific Space Show program. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are a violation of our copyright and are not permitted without prior written consent, even if for your own use. We do not permit the commercial use of Space Show programs or any part thereof, nor do we permit editing, YouTube clips, or clips placed on other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted, but the quote must be cited or referenced using the proper citation format. Contact The Space Show for further information. We welcomed back Tom Olson for his annual Space Show year in review analysis with a look forward to 2013 for space development. We started our discussion by remembering those in our space community that are no longer with us. We specifically mentioned three dear friends though we know that others have also left us. Our program was dedicated to Neil Armstrong, Jesco von Puttkamer, and Reda Anderson. We certainly miss our friends but space development marches on like everything else in life. A few of the early issues Tom brought up in the 2012 annual overview of space included the Falcon 9 launches and Dragon missions. He also talked about ISDC and birthing of Dragon during the keynote by NASA Administrator Charlie Bolden. While on the subject of SpaceX and its mission to the ISS, Paul sent in a question asking if SpaceX dropping out of the Stratolauncher project indicated that perhaps they had “bitten off more than they could chew.” Tom and I have no inside information about SpaceX and Stratolaunch but we both thought that Paul’s comment was reasonable as SpaceX is certainly busy enough with game changing projects & technology. Cubesats were discussed given their rise in popularity and importance in 2012. It seems as if their potential is more than on the rise! Cubesat growth also cuts across many diverse space industry segments and niche markets. Bev asked about the future of 3-D printing and its potential impact on future human spaceflight (HSF). 3-D printing is certainly experiencing space industry growth & there will soon be a small 3-D printer on the ISS. Heavy lift came up and much was said about the Falcon Heavy and SLS, both looking back over 2012 & forward to 2013.
In our second segment, I asked if fuel depots would evolve from the Power Point & rhetoric stage to something more tangible in 2013. We talked about depots as many of the projects announced in 2012 use depot technology to enable their plan. Tom talked about warp drive becoming more possible due to the 2012 work of Dr. Sonny White. Dr. White will be a guest on The Space Show Friday, January 4, 2013. Tom next brought up NASA budget issues & possible cuts. He talked about science mission cuts, the JWST, and on the HSF side, SLS eating up much of the budget with commercial crew still needing funding. I asked Tom how he thought space advocacy made out during 2012. Mixed was a one word summary of this discussion. Next, we talked about space settlement being made part of the U.S. space policy in 2013. Tom went over the pros & cons surrounding this effort. Doug called in about space settlement & I referred him to earlier programs with Steve Wolfe who authored the Space Settlement Act of 1988 which is part of public law. Tom said space settlement was SLS dependent & that makes the potential policy controversial to many space enthusiasts since many oppose SLS. Tom said 2012 was a good year for new commercial space grandiose missions such as Golden Spike, Planetary Resources, Mars One, a lunar base, Shackleton Energy, even EML2 missions. He kept asking the questions regarding objectives, who pays, the reasons for the missions, and more. He said most of these missions rely on some form of large launcher, either the Falcon Heavy SLS. Tom talked about ITAR reform that has been signed by both houses of Congress & is applicable to the U.S. satellite industry. Human rating of the Atlas came up for a 2012 progress report, then Dave in San Antonio inquired about cyber warfare & the space industry in 2012 & the future. 2012 marked the year the space shuttles went on display in museums & Tom talked about the Russian space program investments for modernization over the coming decade. He also talked about other national space programs. Near the end of our program, we brought up the Spaceport America liability issue & the risks facing the New Mexico spaceport. Tom updated us for 2013 on the NewSpace Business Plan Competition & his work with the Exodus Group for space business consulting.
Please post your comments/questions on The Space Show blog. You can email Tom through drspace@thespaceshow.com.
Robert (Bob) Zimmerman, Monday, 12-10-12 December 11, 2012
Posted by The Space Show in Uncategorized.Tags: " Robby the Robot., " SpaceX, "Forbidden Planet, "Genesis: The Story of Apollo 8: The First Manned Mission to Another World", Antares, Apollo 8, Arianne 5, Arianne 6, Baikonur Cosmodrome, Commercial Crew, Dragon, Dream Chaser, drones on Mars, EMLD, ESA, Falcon 9. , Golden Spike, heavy lift, ISS, James Webb Space Telescope, launch industry, lunar farside missions, manned space exploration, NASA budget cuts, NASA Mars Program, Orbital Sciences, Robert (Bob) Zimmerman, secondary payloads, sequestration, SLS, SpaceShip2, Stratolaunch, Virgin Galactic, XCOR
4 comments
Robert (Bob) Zimmerman, Monday, 12-10-12
http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/1911-BWB-2012-12-10.mp3
John Powell, Tuesday, 10-2-12 October 3, 2012
Posted by The Space Show in Uncategorized.Tags: air launch, Airship To Orbit, Ascender Airship, Dark Sky Stations, Echo project, high altitude airships, John Powell, JP Aerospace, Kickstarter., MiniCubes, PongSat, Project Shot Put., Stratolaunch, volunteer labor, weather balloons
add a comment
John Powell, Tuesday, 10-2-12
http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/1864-BWB-2012-10-02.mp3
Todd Halvorson, Friday, 5-18-12 May 18, 2012
Posted by The Space Show in Uncategorized.Tags: Antares, Ares 1, Ares 1X test flight, ATK, Cape Canaveral, Cecil Field, Constellation, Cots, deep space taxi, down selecting, Dr. Mike Griffin, Elon Musk, Falcon 9. , Florida, Florida Today, instantaneous launch window, ISS, Mars Science Lab, NASA budget, NewSpace, old space, Orbital Sciences, Planetary Resources, Return to the Moon, Space Act Agreement, space coast economy, space exploration, Space Launch System (SLS)., space telescope, Space X, spaceports, SRBs, Stratolaunch, Todd Halverson, traditional aerospace, U.S. congress, ULA
add a comment
Todd Halvorson, Friday, 5-18-12
http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/1777-BWB-2012-05-18.mp3
Guest: Todd Halvorson. Topics: Upcoming Falcon 9 & Dragon launch, Floridaspace policy, NASA & more. You are invited to comment, ask questions, and discuss the Space Show program/guest(s) on the Space Show blog, http://thespaceshow.wordpress.com. Comments, questions, and any discussion must be relevant and applicable to Space Show programming. Transcripts of Space Show programs are not permitted without prior written consent from The Space Show (even if for personal use) & are a violation of the Space Show copyright. We welcomed Todd Halvorson, senior aerospace reporter for FLORIDA TODAY & USA TODAY to the show. During our first segment, we mostly discussed the upcoming Falcon 9 launch scheduled for Saturday early morning, May 19 2012. Note that Florida Today is having special coverage and programming starting at 3:30 AM EDT. To tune in, visit www.floridatoday.com. Todd detailed the coverage at the start of our next segment. Also in the initial segment, we talked about Congress, commercial crew, down selecting, the Space Act Agreement, and theU.S. human spaceflight program, such that it is a program. Also mentioned was the SLS program along with Orion, then I asked about the space coast economy per the recent 60 Minutes segment last month. Todd had much to say about the 60 Minutes Segment, especially the visuals they used. Don’t miss it. Listener Jane asked about the differences in policy ideas between NewSpace and the old space crowd, especially the very well known astronauts who are most vocal in support of a more traditional NASA program. Todd had much to say about this and we talked about the future NASA as either a space tax service or an organization that explores BLEO. Another topic of interest dealt with the Chinese space program and going to the Moon. Our listener asked if Chinese space plans might start a space competition with theU.S. We then talked about the FY 13 budget for NASA and the possibility of doubling NASA’s budget as proposed by Dr. Tyson. As the segment ended, we discussed Planetary Resources and sought Todd’s perspective on what has been made public so far.
In the second segment, Todd went into detail about the Florida Today broadcast for the Falcon 9 launch. Terry called in to ask about the ISS GPS issue and then we asked Todd to describe what happens when Dragon gets to the vicinity of the ISS. The process goes on through Wednesday morning. Another listener asked for Todd’s analysis of the space program over his 25 year history of reporting space news. Our next topic honed in so the suborbital companies in Mojave, space tourism, and suborbital research. This discussion included spaceports inFlorida,California,Virginia,New Mexico and elsewhere. As our program was nearing its end, we talked about Constellation, Ares 1, SRBs, Dr. Mike Griffin, SLS, and civility. In his closing comments, Todd again said we should have a space program that explores and is not a space taxi service.
Please post your comments/questions on The Space Show blog. You can email Todd through the Florida Today website.
The John Batchelor Show “Hotel Mars,” Wednesday, 4-4-12 April 5, 2012
Posted by The Space Show in Uncategorized.Tags: : John Batchelor, Beyond Low Earth Orbit, birthing as compared to docking, commercial space, Congress, Dragon ISS, entrepreneurial space, Falcon 9. , Falcon Heavy, Gwynne Shotwell, heavy lift, Hotel Mars, Mars, NASA, Space X, Stratolaunch, The John Batchelor Show
add a comment
The John Batchelor Show “Hotel Mars,” Wednesday, 4-4-12
John Batchelor, Gwynne Shotwell of Space X, DrSpace
http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/1746-BWB-2012-04-04.mp3
Guests: John Batchelor, Gwynne Shotwell, Dr. David Livingston. Topics: Space X, the upcoming Falcon 9 launch & Dragon birthing with ISS and more. You are invited to comment, ask questions, and discuss the Space Show program/guest(s) on the Space Show blog, http://thespaceshow.wordpress.com. Comments, questions, and any discussion must be relevant and applicable to Space Show programming. Transcripts of Space Show programs are not permitted without prior written consent from The Space Show (even if for personal use) & are a violation of the Space Show copyright. This program is archived on The Space Show website, podcasting, and blog sites with permission from John Batchelor. Please visit the John Batchelor Show website for more information about this fine program, www.johnbatchelorshow.com. The topics in this 20 minute plus two part segment focused on the upcoming Space X Falcon 9 launch with the Dragon to the ISS, the birthing process (not docking), and what it means for the company and the country to have a successful private and entrepreneurial launch company open up the space markets and processes for more participation. In the second segment after the break, we talked about Falcon Heavy, Stratolaunch, and Space X plans for a future with Mars. If you have comments/questions for either John Batchelor or Gwynne Shotwell, send them to me and I will forward them to you.
Dr. Jeff Bell, Monday, 2-20-12 February 21, 2012
Posted by The Space Show in Uncategorized.Tags: " Phobos Grunt Mission, Anatoly Zak, Bob Zubrin, Chinese Space Program, Curiosity, Delta 2 program, Dr. Jeff Bell, Dragon, EELV, Falcon, human spaceflight, ISS, James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), Kepler Space Telescope, Lavochkin, low cost space access, lunar settlement, Mars Polar Lander, MSL, NASA science missions, National Lab, NewSpace, Phobos 88, Russian Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos), Russian management, Russian space industry, Sergei Korolev., Soyuz, Space Launch System (SLS)., Space X, Stratolaunch, ULA
2 comments
Dr. Jeff Bell, Monday, 2-20-12
http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/1717-BWB-2012-02-20.mp3
Guest: Dr. Jeff Bell. Topics: Dr. Bell’s assessment of NASA, the science missions, human spaceflight, the Russian space problems, & Phobos-Grunt conspiracy theories. You are invited to comment, ask questions, and discuss the Space Show program/guest(s) on the Space Show blog, http://thespaceshow.wordpress.com. Comments, questions, and any discussion must be relevant and applicable to Space Show programming. Transcripts of Space Show programs are not permitted without prior written consent from The Space Show (even if for personal use) & are a violation of the Space Show copyright. We welcomed Dr. Jeff Bell back to the program for his assessment of space today in theUnited States, along with the problems facing the Russian space industry and the Phobos-Grunt conspiracy theories as to why the mission failed. Those familiar with Dr. Bell and his Space Show programs will not be disappointed as this two hour plus discussion is vintage Jeff Bell. Dr. Bell started with an assessment of the problems over the last year and half or so with the Russian space industry and its management. Jeff does a good job of summarizing their history of manufacturing, technology, and engineering problems going back to the time of Sergei Korolev. He also shares with us his experiences working with the Russians on the Phobos 88 mission. He said typical characteristics of Russian missions leading to problems include being too ambitious, costly for their budgets, and the labor allocated to the projects. He suggested that we in theU.S. do the same thing and cited MSL and Curiosity as an example. He had much to say about the early Soviet Venus probes and how their data was widely discounted outside of theSoviet Union. He then said Space X might be overextending and he cited several ongoing Space X projects which might distract from their primary mission at hand which is to get Falcon and Dragon operational. Listeners asked about the Russian problems driving customers away from doing business withRussia in favor of ULA in theU.S. Here, Dr. Bell had much to say about ULA pricing, overhead costs without NASA sharing them, and more. He also mentioned what was happening to Delta 2 given the GPS system needing larger rockets as an example of the impact of government policy/spending in space industries. Dr. Bell turned to the latest Phobos-Grunt conspiracy theories for the mission failure. At the end of this segment, Dr. Bell talked about the JWST & Curiosity in terms of overly complex and costly missions.
In the second segment, Jeff talked about the Newt space policy suggestions and the idea of the Moon as the 51st state. He had much to say about the ridicule in the media and was not surprised by it. He used this as an example to say reality “conflicts with the space cadet world view.” In talking about Mars missions, he said people had been conned by the Mars theory of life stories and promoters. He said that Mars and HSF were not worth it. Several listeners called in to debate Jeff on these comments but Jeff took no prisoners. He then talked about the ISS and its less than full utilization and that the entire idea of HSF had come and gone. At one point in response to a listener question/comment, Dr. Bell said that all Zubrin offered was a 60′s program! Jeff did have good things to say about the science and robotic missions, said our planet exploration would be with robots, not humans, and that we needed more missions like the Kepler Space Telescope. He repeated throughout the discussion that nothing useful has come form HSF nor would it. He offered that the basic technology was from the70′s and had not changed. He said overall interest in space had declined since Apollo. In his closing comments, he said he was still hopeful that NewSpace would decrease the launch costs as that would be a game changer.
If you have questions/comments for Dr. Jeff Bell, post them on The Space Show blog URL above.
