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Open Lines, Sunday, 6-28-15 June 29, 2015

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Open Lines, Sunday, 6-28-15

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/2498-BWB-2015-06-28.mp3

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Guests: Open Lines with Dr. David Livingston; Topics: Falcon 9 launch failure, SpaceX, New Horizons, Pluto, and more.  Please direct all comments and questions regarding Space Show programs/guest(s) to the Space Show blog, https://thespaceshow.wordpress.com. Comments and questions should be relevant to the specific Space Show program. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are a violation of our copyright and are not permitted without prior written consent, even if for your own use. We do not permit the commercial use of Space Show programs or any part thereof, nor do we permit editing, YouTube clips, or clips placed on other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted, but the quote must be cited or referenced using the proper citation format. Contact The Space Show for further information. In addition, please remember that your Amazon purchases can help support The Space Show/OGLF. See http://www.onegiantleapfoundation.org/amazon.htm.  For those listening to archives using live365.com and rating the programs, please email me as to why you assign a specific rating to the show. This will help me bring better programming to the audience.

 

Welcome to our last Open Lines program for June 2015.  During the first segment of our 2 hour 9 minute program, we started off with my customary suggestion of a few topics including the Falcon 9 launch failure and a Space Review article from June 8 of this year by Dr. Sam Dinkin, “How much money would it take to launch enterprise into space? (See www.thespacereviewe.com/article/2766/1).  Our first caller, Dr. Dwayne Day, wanted to talk about Sam’s article and analysis.  We had an interesting discussion on its contents but see what you think after reading the short article.  Dwayne also talked about the coming Pluto flyby by New Horizons.  I then asked Dwayne for his thoughts on the Falcon 9 launch failure.  Dwayne offered us several interesting observations about the launch failure and SpaceX.  Our next caller was Tim from Huntsville and he too wanted to talk about the Falcon 9 launch attempt.  He kept repeating we have to do better than chemical rockets.  Before the break, I read an email that came in from Kelly.  Kelly is not a fan or supporter of SpaceX but as you know, The Space Show is willing to air all sides of an argument so I read Kelly’s email on air as it had much to say that was critical about SpaceX.

 

In the second segment Kelly was our first caller.  I put it to Kelly to support his critical comments about the company.  Kelly then talked about lots of issues about SpaceX processes ranging from parts, manufacturing, cutting corners, safety and more.  Several listeners sent in emails asking Kelly direct questions about what he was saying.  I made it clear that I did not agree with much of what he was saying but you give it some thought and decide the issue for yourself. Keep in mind that it is not unusual for a new rocket to have problems, even to fail to reach orbit.  Sometimes many flights have to take place to discover a problem. As I said, I have every confidence that SpaceX will fix whatever the problem is and resume launches as soon as possible.   Kelly sent in a few additional emails during the balance of the show to support the claims he was making.  Our next caller was Dr. Doug from S. California. Doug wanted to talk about the Falcon 9 launch and the need for multiple launchers which he said were a good thing.   Listner Karen emailed us with a question about the Falcon 9 debris field, then Tim called back, then Michael Listner called to continue talking about New Horizons and Pluto.  During Michael’s call, he got a listener question asking if the money would have been better spent on a Uranus mission.  He also talked about the possible regulatory impact of the Falcon 9 loss including RD180 engines, ULA, Air Force certification, and fallout with Senator McCain on his subcommittee regarding the RD180 engines.   Dwayne called back to talk Pluto, the Decadal Survey and planetary missions, plus he talked about the Applied Physics Lab (APL), the Uranus mission mentioned earlier by a listeners and more.

 

Please post your comments/questions on The Space Show blog above.  You can reach all the callers and emailers through me.

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Paul Szymanski, Monday, 2-9-15 February 10, 2015

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Paul Szymanski, Monday, 2-9-15

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/2411-BWB-2015-02-09.mp3

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Guest:  Paul Szymanski.  Topics: Military space, space warfare.  Please direct all comments and questions regarding Space Show programs/guest(s) to the Space Show blog, https://thespaceshow.wordpress.com.  Comments and questions should be relevant to the specific Space Show program. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are a violation of our copyright and are not permitted without prior written consent, even if for your own use. We do not permit the commercial use of Space Show programs or any part thereof, nor do we permit editing, YouTube clips, or clips placed on other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted, but the quote must be cited or referenced using the proper citation format. Contact The Space Show for further information. In addition, please remember that your Amazon purchases can help support The Space Show/OGLF. See http://www.onegiantleapfoundation.org/amazon.htm.  For those listening to archives using live365.com and rating the programs, please email me as to why you assign a specific rating to the show. This will help me bring better programming to the audience.

We welcomed Paul Szymanski to the show to discuss military space, space warfare, cyber issues and more.  In the first segment of our 1 hour 58 minute discussion, Paul introduced us to the topic and told us how he got his interest in the field. We also talked about military space matters in history and how they impact what is happening in space development today, including commercial space.  He talked about the attitude he saw with the Air Force as well as other parts of the government and mentioned that some of our military space data and information goes over commercial satellites and systems.  He explained why this made such systems legitimate military targets and he talked about the risks associated with carrying military data.  He went over historical incidents regarding satellite kills, disruptions, & tests.  He also spoke to U.S. laser weapon work, our ASAT weapons including the F15 efforts, the role of DARPA, and more.  Paul took many listener emails.  They ranged from weapons and war plans for the Moon and Mars to army programs for troops in space or using space to get to a battlefield destination.  He also spoke to the issue of  space to Earth weapons,.  BJohn inquired about Iran and Paul took several questions about U.S. readiness. On this subject, our guest had much to say. He spoke about other countries including China and Russia, but did address the situation in the Ukraine and at one point in our discussion, suggested there had already been a space war regarding the Ukraine.

In the second segment, Paul fielded additional questions on space junk and this time he talked about hiding weapons in space junk that were really ASAT weapons. A listener wanted to know about the cislunar trade routes and while Paul said that was off in the future, the more current focus would be GEO and LEO.  At one point the GEO-Moon area was referred to as a possible battle ground.  Another listener wanted to know about choke points. He referred us to papers on his website, http://spacecontrol.info.  He said GEO was a chokepoint and so were the GPS satellites.  A listener wanted to know about a possible larger role for the Army and Paul agreed that the Army should have a larger role in space warfare issues.  Don’t miss his explanation.  In response to a question by Gabriel, he talked about the 1970s and CSAT, booster failures in the 80s, and the current Ukraine-Crimea crisis.  While some of the reports he mentioned were regarded as rumors, he did do some dot connecting with regards to the Ukraine and the Russian Glonass GPS disruption plus Proton launch failures.  He explained how he connected the dots.  Tell us what you think on the blog.  Cyberwarfare  was discussed as was the effectiveness of a missile defense system.  Later, we talked about space war rules per his July 22, 2013 presentation, “Space Policy Issues:  Top 40 Rules for Space War.”  Near the end of our discussion, we talked about situational awareness , how to prevent defeat, space war game training, responsive space and more.

Please post your comments on TSS blog. You can reach Paul Szymanski through me or his website.

 

Dr. Pat Hynes, Monday, 9-22-14 September 22, 2014

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Dr. Pat Hynes, Monday, 9-22-14

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/2321-BWB-2014-09-22.mp3

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Guest:  Dr. Pat Hynes.  Topics:  Dr. Hynes discusses the upcoming ISPCS for Oct. 15-16, 2014 in Las Cruces, NM.  Please direct all comments and questions regarding Space Show programs/guest(s) to the Space Show blog, https://thespaceshow.wordpress.com.  Comments and questions should be relevant to the specific Space Show program. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are a violation of our copyright and are not permitted without prior written consent, even if for your own use. We do not permit the commercial use of Space Show programs or any part thereof, nor do we permit editing, YouTube clips, or clips placed on other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted, but the quote must be cited or referenced using the proper citation format. Contact The Space Show for further information. In addition, please remember that your Amazon purchases can help support The Space Show/OGLF. See http://www.onegiantleapfoundation.org/amazon.htm.  For those listening to archives using live365.com and rating the programs, please email me as to why you assign a specific rating to the show. This will help me bring better programming to the audience.

We welcomed back Dr. Pat Hynes to tell us about this year’s International Symposium For Personal and Commercial Spaceflight (ISPCS) from Oct. 15-16, Las Cruces, NM.  During out 68 minute program, Dr. Hynes noted that this is the 10th Anniversary of this important symposium event (check it out at http://www.ispcs.com).  The theme for this year’s program is “The Power of Ten” which our guest explained in the context of many of the speakers, panels and talks.  For example, she noted the entry on the agenda for Bill Gerstenmaier, Associate Administrator, Human Exploration and Operations, NASA, which said “One to the power of ten is one. Two the power of ten is…more. Never before have the titles of ‘new space’ and ‘old space’ been as trivial as they are today. Bill Gerstenmaier discusses how to leverage both the strengths and vulnerabilities of the aerospace industry to foster greater collaboration as we reach new powers of ten together.”  Also noted was George Sowers of ULA who “will discuss the concept of power as presented in his book The Philosophy for the Future. In this conception, power is defined as power-to or capability and is optimistic and affirming. A formal definition of power will be given and the various kinds of power will be discussed including economic, political and scientific. Sowers will argue that that the overarching goal of humanity should be to maximize the power of humankind in the long run. Human expansion beyond earth in general and commercial development of space in particular are seen to be perfectly aligned with that overarching goal.”  Pat also said that ULA, SpaceX and the Air Force would be there for questions about their plans, disagreements, etc.  Along these lines, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy for the DOD, Doug Loverro, is a keynote speaker on the topic of “A Collision in Space: The Interaction of Commercial Space Desires and Defense Space Needs.”  Pat went into some detail to explain just how different this event is from typical space conferences.  Having attended many of the ISPCS events, I can attest to the fact that they are very unique and highly valuable for those attending, participating and speaking.  Go to the Agenda on the website to see all the keynote, panels, and Spotlight Talk speakers and subject descriptions.  Toward the end of our discussion, we talked about conference logistics, shuttles, and the special Friday tour to Spaceport America.  We also learned that there would be a 5:30 AM Boeing Run.  Check out what Pat said about this event.  Looking ahead for those of you doing advance planning, the ISPCS will be Oct. 14-15 in 2015.  The theme for the 2015 event will be “Making A Difference” which Pat explained prior to the end of the discussion.

Please post your comments/questions on TSS blog. If you have event questions use the contact information on the ISPCS website.  You can reach Dr. Hynes through the ISPCS website, Space Grant New Mexico, or me.

Stewart Money, Friday, 3-9-12 March 10, 2012

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Stewart Money, Friday, 3-9-12

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/1731-BWB-2012-03-09.mp3

Guest:  Stewart Money.  Topics:  We discussed EELV issues, the Air Force desire for a bulk buy of EELV services, Space X and more.  You are invited to comment, ask questions, and discuss the Space Show program/guest(s) on the Space Show blog, https://thespaceshow.wordpress.com. Comments, questions, and any discussion must be relevant and applicable to Space Show programming. Transcripts of Space Show programs are not permitted without prior written consent from The Space Show (even if for personal use) & are a violation of the Space Show copyright. We welcomed Stewart Money to the program to discuss his recent Space Review articles.  The primary article he wrote which was the subject for today can be found at  www.thespacereview.com/article/1990/.  Stewart has Part 2 to this article coming up on The Space Review so be sure to look for it and read it when it is available.  During our first segment, Stewart talked about ULA and the proposed bulk buy of ULA rockets for the Air Force and the rising prices for EELV launches. This block buy has been raised into question by many including the GAO study with the thought that it should be expanded to allow for additional purchases from competing companies such as Space X or Orbital.  Google ULA Air Force bulk buy” for a list of news articles about this story.  Stewart received many questions about this because Falcon 9 is not yet operational and Falcon Heavy has not been built. Stewart talked about this in the context of Air Force requirements for availability, reliability, and the launch cost.  Our guest felt that since there was a gap of several years in the Air Force program, there should be time for Falcon 9 to prove itself without much of a downside to the Air Force or ULA if they needed to add in more EELV purchases due to any Space X problems that may arise. Part of our discussion centered on risk but as you will hear, Stewart was mostly focused on launch cost and believes that Space X will be a driving force to lower the cost of access to space.  Near the end of this segment, the stored Triana Satellite came up (It is now named the Deep Space Climate Observatory or DISCOVR) and how the Air Force might launch it on the Falcon 9.  During this segment, Stewart also referred to the Aerospace Corporation 3/7 Reliability Rule which says that if a failure occurs during the first three launches, the problem is probably a design issue. If failure occurs after the third successful launch but before the seventh, a production process issue is probable. Once a launch vehicle configuration launches successfully three times, its design has demonstrated maturity. If successfully launched seven times, the design & production process maturity are likely demonstrated. Check out this document for more detailed information on the 3/7 Reliability Rule: “Space Acquisitions: Uncertainties in the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle Program Pose Management and Oversight Challenges” by the GAO at www.gao.gov/new.items/d081039.pdf.

In the second segment, we talked about the recent congressional testimony on the FY 13 budget with Congress and Administrator Bolden plus the testimony of Neil deGrasse Tyson.  Stewart boiled the problems down to the cost of space access and remained with the theme of solving that problem for the balance of our discussion.  We then talked more about testing, high priority payloads and normal payloads, how many flights would be needed for the Falcon 9 to fly a high priority payload and more.  We also talked about the difference in theory with a yet to be proven, operational launch vehicle being considered real as compared to an actual operating and flying vehicle as many confuse the two, counting the first one as real with real pricing when it is not even operational.

Please post your comments/questions on The Space Show blog URL above. If you would like to email Mr. Money, you can use the address at the end of his Space Review articles.

Dr. Dwayne Day, Wednesday, 11-23-11 November 23, 2011

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Dr. Dwayne Day, Wednesday, 11-23-11

HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

 http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/1659-BWB-2011-11-23.mp3

Guest:  Dr. Dwayne Day.  Topics:  The future of the U.S. astronaut corps & the Chinese space program & intentions.  You are invited to comment, ask questions, & discuss the Space Show program/guest(s) on the Space Show blog, https://thespaceshow.wordpress.com.  Comments, questions, & any discussion must be relevant & applicable to Space Show programming. Transcripts of Space Show programs are not permitted without prior written consent from The Space Show (even if for personal use) & are a violation of the Space Show copyright.  The Space Show/OGLF is now engaged in its annual fundraising drive. Please see & act upon our appeal at https://thespaceshow.wordpress.com/2011/11/21/space-show-2011-fundraising-campaign. We welcomed Dr. Day back to the show to discuss the NRC/National Academies report he directed, “Preparing for the High Frontier: The Role & Training of NASA Astronauts in the Post-Space Shuttle Era.”  You can download this report in .pdf format for free: http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13227.  Later in the program, Dr. Day talked about the Chinese space program based on his Space Review article from Nov. 14, 2011, “Staring into the eyes of the Dragon ( www.thespacereview.com/article/1970/1)”.  We started our discussion talking about the astronaut corps of the future.  Dr. Day told us about the study panel members,  their methodology, their visit to JSC in Houston to see the training facilities, & their discussions with many of the commercial companies working on CCDEV. Their initial assumptions that were proven wrong were that NASA had too many astronauts & the use of the T-38 were not that vital to the program. They discovered that the astronaut corps had already been downsized. Dwayne provided us with a chart which is on the blog for this program showing the astronaut corps population going back to 1959 projected to 2016.  The panel looked at three issues at the start of their task: The future role of the corps & its size; Training facilities & needs post shuttle; Training aircraft such as the T-38 for spaceflight readiness issues.  During this segment, Dr. Day discussed their work & conclusions in detail.  Several questions were about comparing the U.S. astronaut program with the Russians & the training involved with astronauts from other countries.  Many listeners wanted to know about the role of commercial launch providers & even if there might be a private astronaut corps.  One of the things Dr. Day said was that two commercial astronaut models were being examined by NASA, the rental car model & the “we are in charge” model.  He also talked about the impact on the program, planning, & development of uncertainty.  As for the T-38s, the conclusion was that they were needed for real time space situational awareness training & decision making. In our second segment, Dwayne took a few New Space focused questions.  He mentioned talking to Space X & other companies plus what his panel heard as to their suggestions for the astronaut corps.  Later, we talked about NRC reports in general, avoiding conflict of interest, & taxpayer value. A listener from Canada asked about the possibility of a private astronaut corp returning to the Moon before government astronauts. This led to a discussion about space enthusiasts & reality checks.  For the balance, we talked about the Chinese program.  Here, Dr. Day broke it down between human spaceflight & their defense, science & image satellite programs. He also talked about Chinese intentions.  I urge you to read his excellent Space Review article referenced above.  For 2012, I will do my best to offer Space Show listeners programming on the Chinese program, including webinar panel discussions, as it is important for us to understand as much as possible about the Chinese program.  Post comments & questions on the blog URL above.  You can email Dr. Day at zirconici1@cox.net.  If you do email him, please copy me so I can learn from the exchange.

 

Astronaut Corps Population