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Wayne Eleazer, Monday, 11-16-15 November 17, 2015

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Wayne Eleazer, Monday, 11-16-15

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/2586-BWB-2015-11-16.mp3

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Guest:  Wayne Eleazer. Topics:  Launch failures and why they happen.  Please direct all comments and questions regarding Space Show programs/guest(s) to the Space Show blog, https://thespaceshow.wordpress.com.  Comments and questions should be relevant to the specific Space Show program. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are a violation of our copyright and are not permitted without prior written consent, even if for your own use. We do not permit the commercial use of Space Show programs or any part thereof, nor do we permit editing, YouTube clips, or clips placed on other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted, but the quote must be cited or referenced using the proper citation format. Contact The Space Show for further information. In addition, please remember that your Amazon purchases can help support The Space Show/OGLF. See www.onegiantleapfoundation.org/amazon.htm.  For those listening to archives using live365.com and rating the programs, please email me as to why you assign a specific rating to the show. This will help me bring better programming to the audience.

We welcomed Wayne Eleazer to the show to discuss the history and why of rocket launch failures per the many articles he has written over the years on these subjects for The Space Review.  In the first segment of our 1 hour 58 minute discussion, Wayne started us off responding to my question about the most dramatic launch failure he has seen or studied.  He talked about a spectacular Titan failure so don’t miss his story.  Michael Listner called and talked about many topics including Air Force mishap reports.  What Wayne had to say about the mishap reports and the Air Force candor regarding launch failures was very interesting and informative.  Wayne introduced us to the Oops Factor regarding failures, a concept he used in an earlier Space Review article.  This refers to one thing causing the launch failure but the people down the line with oversight responsibility all miss it or “oops!”  SpaceX and the Falcon 9 problems came up many times but here Wayne talked about the needed culture in a company to deal with launch failures, learn from them, and work to keep them from happening again.  He thought SpaceX was doing all of that.  He also talked about Orbital ATK and the Antares and their culture, then I asked him about the SpaceShip2 failure/accident.  Near the end of the first segment, Jay asked Wayne if military rockets had similar launch failure problems.  Wayne’s response about the military rocket motor, its reliability, testing, and costs was most illuminating.  As we learned, the military rocket motor stands alone in quality.

In the second segment, Wayne was asked if he could spot trends that cause launch failures over and over again.  He said no but listen to his complete answer.  He called this the “Predictables” and is completing a new Space Review article on this subject.  He listed several examples including his use of the Challenger loss as well as Delta and Atlas failures.  I asked him if on the military side, there were consequences for military personnel with responsibility and oversight duties, maybe a demotion, court martial, anything.  You might be surprised by his answer to this question.  We talked more about the Falcon 9 and EELVs in this segment, plus the old Thor and the Atlas.  Barry asked Wayne about Russian launch failures.  Wayne talked about the Russian culture and problems.  Near the end, he said EELV reliability was improving.  He made some additional Atlas and Falcon 9 comparisons, then I asked if there was an expected failure rate for these rockets.  Wayne suggested if a company survives ten launches, their odds for survival improve greatly.  Doug asked about fairing issues. Wayne talked about the ways that a fairing can open up and we talked about the recent Taurus failures due to fairing problems.  Doug followed up his question asking about the reliability for the Falcon Heavy.  Wayne had much to say about reliability and strap on rockets &the odds of a failure by strapping rockets together.  You might be surprised by what he said.  I asked him about modular all purpose, all mission rockets, complexity vs. simplicity, small start-up launch operations and the SLS.  In concluding the show, he talked about the value in understanding launch failures.  He talked about education on launch failures and why it has been so hard for people to be open minded and learn from rocket failures.  At one point, he mentioned an older German rocket company building an ugly pipe rocket, OTRAG.

Please post your comments/questions on TSS blog.  You can reach Wayne through me.

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William (Bill) Harwood, Sunday, 11-24-13 November 25, 2013

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William (Bill) Harwood, Sunday, 11-24-13

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/2128-BWB-2013-11-24.mp3

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Guest: William (Bill) Harwood.  Topics:  SpaceX Falcon 9 GEO Launch, space policy, suborbital issues and more.  Please direct all comments and questions regarding Space Show programs/guest(s) to the Space Show blog, https://thespaceshow.wordpress.com.  Comments and questions should be relevant to the specific Space Show program. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are a violation of our copyright and are not permitted without prior written consent, even if for your own use. We do not permit the commercial use of Space Show programs or any part thereof, nor do we permit editing, YouTube clips, or clips placed on other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted, but the quote must be cited or referenced using the proper citation format. Contact The Space Show for further information. In addition, please remember that your Amazon purchases can help support The Space Show/OGLF. See www.onegiantleapfoundation.org/amazon.htm.

We welcomed Bill Harwood, the CBS News space consultant to the show.  During the first segment of our 90 minute program, Bill told us about his press conference and briefing with Elon Musk, the CTO from SES, the company sending the first GEO bird to orbit on the Falcon 9 on Monday afternoon, 11-25-13, and Ms. Shotwell of SpaceX.  Most of the first segment was spent discussing the press conference, the comments about the launch made by all participants, the challenges of doing the first GEO launch for the new Falcon 9 V1.1 and more.  Not only did Bill go over the details of the launch and the SES satellite orbital insertion, plus the Falcon 9 plans for second stage firing and getting in position for the satellite to take over for its part, we talked about SpaceX launch costs, we compared the Falcon 9 costs as best we could to the Arianne and the ILS Proton costs.  Bill was asked about the thoughts of the Falcon 9 competition and what it might mean for a SpaceX success with their first GEO launch.  Also in this segment, Bill was asked about Inspiration Mars, SLS, & Orion.  Other topics included space settlement, suborbital flight, Virgin Galactic, robotic missions, and the why that justifies HSF.  As the segment was ending, a listener asked about the Florida space coast economy and its economic recovery.

In the second segment, Bill was asked if SpaceX was creating a new market or taking market share from the existing competition.  We talked about NASA story telling for a better space policy, the JFK legacy, & space being treated by many as a luxury.  I asked Bill about the private sector being able to kick start space industry development and Bill responded with information how hard space was, especially orbital space which requires speeds of 85 football fields per second.  Dream Chaser and its recent accident were discussed and there was lots of listener support for Dream Chaser as there was from our guest.  More was said about the potential market for suborbital tourism and flights.  Bill was asked about the biggest change over the years in his covering space issues and he said it was the change in politics.  I asked him about his reporting during both Challenger and Columbia. As the program closed, Bill was asked about the ISS, commercial development for the station, and the need to keep the station going beyond 2020.

Post your comments/questions to The Space Show blog above.  You can email Mr. Harwood through me at drspace@thespaceshow.com.

Dr. James Hansen, Monday, 8-26-13 August 27, 2013

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Dr. James Hansen, Monday, 8-26-13

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/2076-BWB-2013-08-26.mp3

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Guest:  Dr. James Hansen.   Topics:  Neil Armstrong on the first anniversary of his passing.  Please direct all comments and questions regarding Space Show programs/guest(s) to the Space Show blog, https://thespaceshow.wordpress.com.  Comments and questions should be relevant to the specific Space Show program. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are a violation of our copyright and are not permitted without prior written consent, even if for your own use. We do not permit the commercial use of Space Show programs or any part thereof, nor do we permit editing, YouTube clips, or clips placed on other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted, but the quote must be cited or referenced using the proper citation format. Contact The Space Show for further information. In addition, please remember that your Amazon purchases can help support The Space Show/OGLF. See www.onegiantleapfoundation.org/amazon.htm.

We welcomed Dr. James Hansen to the program to discuss his book, the only officially approved biography of Neil Armstrong, “First Man: The Life of Neil A. Armstrong,” on the one year anniversary of Neil’s death.  Dr. Hansen also wrote an op-ed for Space.com which you will find interesting (www.space.com/22510-neil-armstrong-astronaut-icon-remembered.html).  During this one hour 25 minute program, Dr. Hansen had much to say about Neil Armstrong starting with his days as a 21 year old Naval aviator in the Korean War.  In fact, he told us a Korean War story about Neil flying his jet and coming upon North Korean troops exercising.  We also learned that Neil favored aviation over space flight and Dr. Hansen spoke with us as to  why this was so.  Our guest received lots of questions about the Apollo 11 crew, personalities of all the crew members and how the crew interacted with one another on mission work and in their personal lives. He also described Armstrong as being modest and a bit “Garbo-like.”  Listen to his explanation of why he thought that was so.  Dr. Hansen got questions about Neil as a university professor and what his students thought of him, plus did the students pester him about the Moon landing given how modest Armstrong was about the Apollo 11 landing and his accomplishments in general.  We also talked about his role in the Augustine Commission and his perspective about the need to go back to the Moon and to avoid a gap in U.S. human spaceflight capability.

In our second segment, I asked Dr. Hansen to elaborate on the Clint Eastwood effort to do a Neil Armstrong movie.  Dr. Hansen related a good Clint Eastwood and Neil Armstrong golf story to us which you will enjoy.  Our guest was asked about Neil’s role in both the Challenger and the Columbia accidents.  As we learned, Neil turned down an opportunity to be part of the Columbia accident board but he did serve on the Challenger board and Dr. Hansen had much to say about that.   We then spoke about preserving the Apollo landing sites as historical sites, then our guest was asked if the Apollo 11 crew traits discussed earlier in the show were the traits needed for the first HSF to Mars.  Agin, Dr. Hansen had much to say on this issue so don’t miss his comments.  Toward the end, Dr. Hansen spoke about the fact that there were no photos taken of Neil on the Moon as all the photos are of Buzz.  The official line at the time was that such photos were not in the mission plan.  He also told us a never before heard story regarding Jim Lovell & crew selection for the Moon landing.  Dr. Hansen had much to say about these incidents so don’t miss his comments.

Please post your comments/questions on The Space Show blog.  If you want to contact Dr. Hansen, you can do through me.