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Dr. Paul Spudis, Friday, 6-20-14 June 19, 2014

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Dr. Paul Spudis, Friday, 6-20-14

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/2266-BWB-2014-06-20.mp3

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Guest:  Dr. Paul Spudis.  Topics:  Dr. Spudis provided us with an overview and analysis of the NRC “Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration.”  Please direct all comments and questions regarding Space Show programs/guest(s) to the Space Show blog, https://thespaceshow.wordpress.com.  Comments and questions should be relevant to the specific Space Show program. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are a violation of our copyright and are not permitted without prior written consent, even if for your own use. We do not permit the commercial use of Space Show programs or any part thereof, nor do we permit editing, YouTube clips, or clips placed on other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted, but the quote must be cited or referenced using the proper citation format. Contact The Space Show for further information. In addition, please remember that your Amazon purchases can help support The Space Show/OGLF. See http://www.onegiantleapfoundation.org/amazon.htm.  For those listening to archives using live365.com and rating the programs, please email me as to why you assign a specific rating to the show. This will help me bring better programming to the audience.

We welcomed back to the show Dr. Paul Spudis to discuss the NRC Human Spaceflight Study report recently released. You can download the report for free at http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=18801.  Please note that this program was broadcast and recorded live on Wednesday, June 18, 2014.  It is being archived on Friday, 6-20-24 as there will be no live show on Friday due to the host travel schedule.  During the first segment of our 1 hour 36 minute program, Dr. Spudis first walked us through the NRC nearly 300 page study, hitting the highlights, raising questions, talking about what was good in the report and disappointing in it.  We talked about the rational for human spaceflight, for Mars, also the Moon.  We noted the absence of economic development in the report and this gave Dr. Spudis several openings to talk about his ideas for cislunar economic development.  Listeners asked lots of email questions ranging from budget issues, to SpaceX and rocket reusability.  Paul described much of what the study suggested as a form of “Apollo to Mars.”  Near the end of this segment we talked about public/private partnerships and learned that the Pathways study was only addressing public programs.  A listener asked Dr. Spudis what he thought the impact of the study might be and sitting on a shelf somewhere seemed a plausible answer.

In the second segment, Dr. Spudis focused on the response to the report and ways to actually develop a quality space program.  He talked about the need for a space transportation system, space infrastructure, and to use an incremental approach.  Robotics were discussed, we talked about the space media, and Dr. Spudis reminded us a few times that if there is no infrastructure, there can be no institutional use and capability.  We also compared the Apollo period and JFK’s goal for the Moon compared to now.  Its an interesting discussion, especially since we no longer have many of the skill sets we had back then.  The value of the Moon and commercial space came up & we talked about promoting the value to policy makers.  In supporting his incremental approach, Paul referenced a bit of US naval history.

Please post your comments/questions on TSS blog.  Check out Paul’s blog, http://www.spudislunarresources.com.  You can contact Dr. Spudis through his blog or me.

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Dr. Paul Spudis, Sunday, 1-26-14 January 27, 2014

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Dr. Paul Spudis, Sunday, 1-26-14

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/2173-BWB-2014-01-26.mp3

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Guest:  Dr. Paul Spudis.    Topics: Space policy, cislunar development, The Moon, Clementine & more.  Please direct all comments and questions regarding Space Show programs/guest(s) to the Space Show blog, https://thespaceshow.wordpress.com.  Comments and questions should be relevant to the specific Space Show program. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are a violation of our copyright and are not permitted without prior written consent, even if for your own use. We do not permit the commercial use of Space Show programs or any part thereof, nor do we permit editing, YouTube clips, or clips placed on other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted, but the quote must be cited or referenced using the proper citation format. Contact The Space Show for further information. In addition, please remember that your Amazon purchases can help support The Space Show/OGLF. See www.onegiantleapfoundation.org/amazon.htm.

We welcomed Dr. Spudis back to the show for this 1 hour 54 minute wide ranging discussion on space policy, lunar activities, the Chinese space program, SLS, weapons in space, military space, and more.  In our first segment, Dr. Spudis started with a report on the Chinese lunar lander/rover and said that he was hearing there were problems with it.  Since the Chinese program is not transparent, he said it was hard to get details but even if the mission ended early, it met its goals of a soft landing on the Moon.  He had more to say about the lander, the accomplishments of the Chinese program and some of the real progress by the Chinese, especially from their next to last mission.  Dr. Spudis fielded many email questions and took calls.  Our guest then started talking about the Clementine mission given its been 20 years since this very successful program.  You can read his articles about Clementine on his website (spudislunarresources.com and also his blog, http://blogs.airspacemag.com/moon.  He also talked about LCROSS and other recent missions.  Just before the end of the first segment, Marshall phoned in to talk about taxing lunar entrepreneurial ventures. We also talked benefit sharing, global taxation, and commercial incentives.  We closed the segment with Paul talking about the economic and wealth creating potential afforded us all by cislunar development.

In the second segment, he responded to an email question about the Earth-Mars space system having a higher commercial value than cislunar.  Paul explained in some detail why that was not so & why cislunar is far greater in economic value and wealth potential.  Paul then talked about Hugh Dryden & his accomplishments, then renaming the Dryden NASA facility after Neil Armstrong.  Our next subject was American Exceptionalism with Paul blogged about last year.  We then talked about space tourism.  Paul said he was skeptical about it but we just wait and see. I mentioned a new book about Sir Richard Branson & problems with Virgin Galactic by British author Tom Bower.  Here is an article that describes what we talked about:  www.newspacejournal.com/2014/01/26/new-branson-bio-examines-delays-and-other-problems-with-virgin-galactic.  Paul got a question from Phil to describe lunar ice, then SLS John called to agree with Paul’s SLS analysis and more.  Rick was our final emailer asking about the ASRG cancellation and what this means for deep space & long duration missions.  Paul’s concluding comments again supported the wealth & economic potential for cislunar development.

Please post comments/questions on TSS blog above.  You can contact Dr. Spudis through his website.

Dr. William Halal, Sunday, 1-5-14 January 6, 2014

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Dr. William Halal, Sunday, 1-5-14

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/2157-BWB-2014-01-05.mp3

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Guest:  Dr. William (Bill) Halal.  Topics:  Space forecasting for the near and long term.  Please direct all comments and questions regarding Space Show programs/guest(s) to the Space Show blog, https://thespaceshow.wordpress.com.  Comments and questions should be relevant to the specific Space Show program. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are a violation of our copyright and are not permitted without prior written consent, even if for your own use. We do not permit the commercial use of Space Show programs or any part thereof, nor do we permit editing, YouTube clips, or clips placed on other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted, but the quote must be cited or referenced using the proper citation format. Contact The Space Show for further information. In addition, please remember that your Amazon purchases can help support The Space Show/OGLF. See www.onegiantleapfoundation.org/amazon.htm.

We welcomed Dr. William Halal to our program for a 1 hour 48 minute discussion on predictions for both near and long term space development.  In our first segment, we focused on the near term predictions that mostly centered on continued growth of space commercialization and the emergence of space tourism.  Additional topics talked about in the first segment included the Chinese space program and its possible impact on the U.S. space program, heavy lift and SLS, the space media and its potential space tourism accident response, commercial activity on the ISS, and space entrepreneurism.  Dr. Halal also directed our attention to his website, www.techcast.org which will soon migrate to www.technicalglobal.com.  Listeners asked our guest about the biggest challenges facing both commercial space and space tourism, then our guest talked about big growth possibilities with solar satellites.  Issues were addressed regarding our congress, economics, and the tensions among all the players.

In the second segment, we talked about knowledge emerging as the powerful tool of the near to intermediate term.  Dr. Halal suggested tourism would be in place around 2015 and the commercial industry would keep developing to the 2020 range.  John called from Ft. Worth to draw comparisons to our early military and aviation history, suggesting the role of the government might be to continue developing hardware and infrastructure that would eventually enhance the commercial players much the way the military aircraft had dual use with the commercial industry.  John also had comments about asteroid missions which our guest brought up in this segment.  Dr. Halal mentioned the potential of interstellar travel around 2070 and the possibility of solar satellites coming on line much sooner.  We talked about going to Mars and the Moon and about Mars One and Inspiration Mars.  Doug was the next caller and he talked about depots and large rockets, specifically for missions BLEO and the Moon.  Doug brought up SpaceX heavy lift concepts, Martian terraforming, and SpaceX orbital human spaceflight around 2017.  As our program was ending, we talked about the rate of change going on in the world today and its impact on people in different age groups.  He said we all need to be prepared for a turbulent and transformative time as he does not believe current global systems are sustainable and will have to make way for new systems and programs.

Please post your comments/questions on The Space Show blog above.  You can contact our guest through me at drspace@thespaceshow.com or his website.

Michael Belfiore, Monday, 10-21-13 October 22, 2013

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Michael Belfiore, Monday, 10-21-13

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/2108-BWB-2013-10-21.mp3

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Guest:  Michael Belfiore.  Topics:  XCOR, space tourism, commercial space, DARPA, robotics, and more.  Please direct all comments and questions regarding Space Show programs/guest(s) to the Space Show blog, https://thespaceshow.wordpress.com.  Comments and questions should be relevant to the specific Space Show program. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are a violation of our copyright and are not permitted without prior written consent, even if for your own use. We do not permit the commercial use of Space Show programs or any part thereof, nor do we permit editing, YouTube clips, or clips placed on other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted, but the quote must be cited or referenced using the proper citation format. Contact The Space Show for further information. In addition, please remember that your Amazon purchases can help support The Space Show/OGLF. See www.onegiantleapfoundation.org/amazon.htm.

We welcomed Michael Belfiore back to the show to discuss his recent XCOR Aerospace article (see www.airspacemag.com/space-exploration/The-Lynxs-Leap-223968551.html).  For more information, visit Michael’s website,  http://michaelbelfiore.com.  During the first segment of our 1 hour 44 minute program, Michael talked extensively about XCOR Aerospace and the Lynx per his above Air and Space Magazine article.  Michael has been a long time follower of XCOR and it shows in this discussion.  We also talked about the other suborbital companies and space tourism in general.  Michael was asked about XCOR’s plans to go orbital from suborbital which was another topic Michael had much to say about.  He said his preference was to fly on a Lynx for the more personal and intimate space experience, including wearing a space suit.  Michael said he was bullish about the overall space tourism industry, he is attracted to the growing small satellite industry but remains partial to human spaceflight.  We talked about SLS which he tends to ignore and discount, SpaceX and Orbital Sciences.  The topic of Cislunar space development came up and while Michael said he was supportive, he is drawn to asteroid economic development.  Before our segment ended, he updated us on the Google Lunar XPrize and I congratulated him for winning the NewSpace Journalism Award this year.

In the second segment, Michael was asked about DARPA which he follows. We talked about Starship 100, the DARPA management style & out of the box operations, the Dec. 20th robotic competition that Michael will attend, plus other important attributes of DARPA.  He mentioned upcoming magazine articles he will be writing for Popular Mechanics and AEON Magazine.  Michael was asked about other national space programs including China’s, Russia’s, and more. Doug called to talk about interstellar DARPA activities, and his cislunar economic ideas.  We also talked about returning to the Moon for settlement.

Please post your comments/questions on The Space Show blog above.  Michael can be reached through is website.

Open Lines, Sunday, 10-7-12 October 7, 2012

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Open Lines, Sunday, 10-7-12

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/1867-BWB-2012-10-07.mp3

Guest:  Dr. David Livingston.   Topics:  Open Lines discussion on various space topics per the choice of the listeners calling today’s show.  You are invited to comment, ask questions, and discuss the Space Show program/guest(s) on the Space Show blog, https://thespaceshow.wordpress.com. Comments, questions, and any discussion must be relevant and applicable to Space Show programming. Transcripts of Space Show programs are not permitted without prior written consent from The Space Show (even if for personal use) & are a violation of the Space Show copyright. Welcome to today’s two hour 15 minute Open Lines discussion.  The program was in three segments but as we focused on just a few topics for the entire discussion, this summary will not be divided by segments.  I started the discussion by describing upcoming Space Show programs, then putting out a few discussion topics.  As it turned out, the dominant topic discussed by the listeners had to do with astronaut safety and the recent program with guest Rand Simberg from Monday, Oct. 1, 2012. Rand talked about our being too risk averse, the need for more lives to be at risk to do valuable space missions, etc. You can hear his program at http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/1863-BWB-2012-10-01.mp3. Several callers took issue with much of what Rand said and for the most part thought that space missions were valued and that human spaceflight was already risky.  Listeners went back and forth on this topic across all segments of the program, talking about shuttle accident rates, proposed accident rates for Constellation, Orion, Dragon, and more.  Some listeners even talked about aviation safety rates, military jets, and the track records of the Atlas 5, Delta IV, and Arianne V rockets.  For part of this discussion, we also talked about the liability limitation laws passed in spaceport states including California which recently signed into law its version of law. We talked about what this might mean for the industry, for spaceflight participants, and even if the would hold up in an accident.

As part of the HSF safety discussions, we also talked about launch abort and escape systems.  We took a call at the first of the second segment from Charles in Oregon who  wanted to talk about the lunar space elevator, SLS and propellant depots, our second most talked about topic for the day.  Charles is a strong proponent of the lunar space elevator and depots, but others called in from the skeptical side of things which was my position.  At times the discussion switched to the space elevator here on Earth but everybody agreed that the lunar space elevator was much more doable. I kept challenging Charles and proponents of this and the depots to show me the complete and thorough financial analysis and trades for these missions with assumptions as that would be the only way to know if these concepts had legs to stand on.  If Charles does get me some of this documentation and its viable, I will use it in a future Space Show program.  Tim in Huntsville wanted to know my thoughts on various alternative launch systems & my preferences for which type of space missions.  There were other topics scattered throughout our program including the 23 mile skydive by Felix Baumgartner with Red Bull scheduled for Oct. 8th, fusion propulsion, and the SpaceX launch going to the ISS later today.

     If you want to email any of the callers to this program, send your note to me and I will forward it for you.  Please post your comments/questions on The Space Show blog URL above.

Tim Pickens, Thursday, 8-2-12 August 2, 2012

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Tim Pickens, Thursday, 8-2-12

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/1827-BWB-2012-08-02.mp3

Guest:  Tim Pickens.  Topics:  Pickens Innovations, commercial space, space economics & policy.  You are invited to comment, ask questions, and discuss the Space Show program/guest(s) on the Space Show blog, https://thespaceshow.wordpress.com. Comments, questions, and any discussion must be relevant and applicable to Space Show programming. Transcripts of Space Show programs are not permitted without prior written consent from The Space Show (even if for personal use) & are a violation of the Space Show copyright.  We welcomed Tim Pickens back to the program to tell us about his new company Pickens Innovations.  As Tim explained, he has left Dynetics and formed his own consulting business.  Learn more about his new consultancy and activities by visiting www.timpickens.com.  We started our discussion by my asking Tim about some of the comments I made yesterday in a USA Today telephone interview regarding commercial/private space development.  Since I forgot to record the interview (something I have learned to do for my own protection given edit rights are seldom permitted re the articles or programs), I bounced some of my comments off Tim to see if I was drinking my own Kool Aid about the state of the private space industry, its potential, the positive changes I see happening, and more.  Tim confirmed that I was on the right track so now I await the USA Today article.  In the process of this discussion, Tim had much to say about the emerging commercial space industry, the companies involved, the economics and the markets.  We talked about how things have changed for the better over time and in recent years.  I then asked Tim about Rocket City Space Pioneers, his Google Lunar X Prize entry, for which he remains the team leader.  Tim was quite frank in discussing the program with us, the Google Lunar X Prize in general & many of the critical issues facing the contest & all the contestants.  Do listen carefully to what he said as it goes right to the heart of issues facing the broader commercial & private space development efforts/industry.  Part of our discussion focused on the value chain available for sustainable lunar business, the problems with ride sharing at this time to the Moon and much more. We also talked about essential time lines for the contest.  He said many times that affordable systems were needed, viable and sustainable business models were needed, and he was thinking about a merger or joint venture with other contestants to make it happen.  Tim fielded many questions about his new consultancy, Pickens Innovations. We learned that he was getting involved in other areas than space, specifically medical devices.  He described two such devices and why his company was pursuing their development.  How about market size and potential as compared to space?  In fact, cash flow & revenue from these successful non-space businesses are expected to fund many of his space development activities.  Also in this segment, our guest talked about space hardware issues.

In the second segment, he defined the Man Cave which he talks about on his website.  Tim responded to a listener question about the potential of a Netscape Moment re investing in space businesses, plus he talked about the need to have more fun and be less nerdy, referencing conference presentations and similar things space people engage in from time to time.  As an example, he cited the Big Bang Theory TV show and a new show about to start, Top Engineer.  Later, we talked about SLS and its future, its mission, and its likelihood of being funded to completion.  Suborbital space and vehicle issues were a discussion topic followed by Tim talking about the Space & Missile Defense Conference in Huntsville (www.udreg.com/SMD) later this month. His closing comments were positive & upbeat for our future, especially by using disruptive technologies which he talked about at great length throughout the interview.

Please post your comments/questions on The Space Show blog.

Dennis Wingo, Friday, 2-3-12 February 3, 2012

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Dennis Wingo, Friday, 2-3-12

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/1704-BWB-2012-02-03.mp3

Guest:  Dennis Wingo.  Topics:  Space commerce, a new space vision and plan, space applications.  You are invited to comment, ask questions, and discuss the Space Show program/guest(s) on the Space Show blog, https://thespaceshow.wordpress.com.  Comments, questions, and any discussion must be relevant and applicable to Space Show programming. Transcripts of Space Show programs are not permitted without prior written consent from The Space Show (even if for personal use) & are a violation of the Space Show copyright.  We welcomed back Dennis Wingo who outline for us a new and inspiring commercial space policy and implementation program.  To make his points, Dennis started out by discussing the news stories this week about the UN plan for a panel to control economic growth around the world for sustainability.  You can read about it at http://news.yahoo.com/un-panel-says-retool-world-economy-sustainability-164515165.html as well as a host of other sites and articles on the internet. Also, check out the planned UN Rio Conference on this program at www.un.org/esa/dsd/index.shtml?utm_source=OldRedirect&utm_medium=redirect&utm_content=dsd&utm_campaign=OldRedirect.  Dennis spent considerable time during our 90 minute discussion dismissing the dystopian view/policy per this UN panel while advocating why space development offered a viable alternative to this limiting policy and way of seeing our world.  During our one hour first segment and in fact the entire show, Dennis championed science and fact over dystopian policy.  He also talked about geo orbits and said there was a newly found orbit requiring much less energy that could be used for going to the Moon so pay attention to what he said about this orbit.  He offered up some new/unusual ideas such as an open cockpit lunar lander.  Dennis put forth a basic strategic plan for staying positive and using our time and energy to do something to prove we advocates are right rather than getting involved in the negative process which we have very little influence over.  Several listeners commented on this strategy, bringing to bear some differences over what Dennis suggested.  That said, the message Dennis presented us was to stay focused on the positive.  Later, he said that the advocacy community’s focus on low cost launch was misdirected.  He talked about this a lot during this segment and the next so don’t miss what he had to say about this important issue.  Dennis did advocate Zero G Zero Tax which he said was good for space applications. Also in this segment he talked about the advances we have made in robotic technology and the Pisces Project in Hawaii, http://pisces.uhh.hawaii.edu.  As this segment ended, he talked about the “Church of SSP,” updating his book “Moonrush,” & the need for unity in the advocacy community. 

In the second segment, a listener asked about the Dr. Spudis cislunar economic development plan and Dennis talked about the need to lower total capital costs.  He also talked about prizes such as the Mars prize recently suggested by Dr. Zubrin.  Dennis repeated that the way to counter the bad press & media was to do something, a space application, to prove that we are right and those ridiculing space investment are wrong. Near the end, he said “the future will right itself….Don’t focus on the negative.” 

Please post your comments/questions for Dennis Wingo on The Space Show blog URL above.

William (Bill) Mellberg, Tuesday, 1-31-12 February 1, 2012

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William (Bill) Mellberg, Tuesday, 1-31-12

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/1702-BWB-2012-01-31.mp3

Guest:  William (Bill) Mellberg.  Topics:  Comparing aviation to commercial space regarding markets, safety, and more. Explorer 1 54th anniversary.  You are invited to comment, ask questions, and discuss the Space Show program/guest(s) on the Space Show blog, https://thespaceshow.wordpress.com.  Comments, questions, and any discussion must be relevant and applicable to Space Show programming. Transcripts of Space Show programs are not permitted without prior written consent from The Space Show (even if for personal use) & are a violation of the Space Show copyright.  We welcomed Bill Mellberg to the program to compare the early days of aviation with today’s commercial space industry. We also honored the 54th anniversary of Explorer 1.  Mr. Mellberg started the discussion with Explorer 1 by talking about the early history of Vanguard, Explorer 1, Werner Von Braun, Ernst Stuhlinger & more. Richard Easton called & we talked about timing, GPS, clock synchronization, his Dad’s work, and Vanguard early history.  Turning to our main topic, comparing the early days of aviation history to the commercial space industry today, our guest said it was a flawed comparison.  During the first segment, he explains in detail his reasoning which has to do with commercial markets, what the government is paying for regarding commercial space as compared to what it paid for with aviation, specifically the Kelly Air Mail Act of 1925.  We also talked about the early history of Fokker Aircraft Company which he tied into our discussion on markets, market timing, and production capabilities.  Mr. Mellberg addressed human spaceflight safety from the point of view that it would be extremely hard for the commercial companies to master safety given the complexities & costs of human spaceflight & the potential damage or even ruination of the company should there be a fatal accident.  Before the segment ended, our guest drove home the lack of commercial markets for human spaceflight.  There must be HSF markets other than the government market for the ISS.  

In our second segment, our guest cited some airplane examples that were ahead of the market and suffered from bad market timing.  He then used the SST as an example of the points he was making about high operating costs, no or limited markets, government subsidies, etc.  He went over the economics of why the Boeing SST was killed by our congress and what happens when the ticket price is so high that a broad market cannot be realized.  Listeners and callers asked about government regulation crippling innovation.  Bill then suggested the path to commercialization was with a program such a what Dr. Spudis and Dr. Lavoie have proposed in their paper “Using the resources of the Moon to create a permanent, cislunar space faring system” as well as on The Space Show. You can read their paper at www.spudislunarresources.com/Bibliography/p/102.pdf.  Bill said that eventually as cislunar economic develop evolves, so would commercial markets and opportunities.  He also recommended the NASA reorganization plan proposed last year by Dr. Harrison Schmitt. You can read his plan at www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=37176.  Our guest suggested that we should use the money being invested in commercial human spaceflight to do space exploration projects because commercial space today is an unnecessary diversion of scarce resources in a tight economy.  Throughout our discussion, he talked about government contracting and why it is different today, not commercial, and unlike what was done in early aviation and with airmail.  At the end of the program, our guest treated us to some of his political humor and impersonations per his program, “An Evening With The Presidents.”

Post your comments/questions on our blog URL above. You can hear his humor at www.aneveningwiththepresidents.com/live