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Special Monday Open Lines, Monday, 3-3-14 March 4, 2014

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Special Monday Open Lines, Monday, 3-3-14

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/s

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Guest:  Open Lines with Dr. David Livingston.  Topics:  Business plans, due diligence, Mars One, skepticism, cynicism, SpaceX & more.  Please direct all comments and questions regarding Space Show programs/guest(s) to the Space Show blog, https://thespaceshow.wordpress.com.  Comments and questions should be relevant to the specific Space Show program. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are a violation of our copyright and are not permitted without prior written consent, even if for your own use. We do not permit the commercial use of Space Show programs or any part thereof, nor do we permit editing, YouTube clips, or clips placed on other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted, but the quote must be cited or referenced using the proper citation format. Contact The Space Show for further information. In addition, please remember that your Amazon purchases can help support The Space Show/OGLF. See www.onegiantleapfoundation.org/amazon.htm.  For those listening to archives using live365.com and rating the programs, please email me as to why you assign a specific rating to the show. This will help me bring better programming to the audience.

Our scheduled guest for this program, Dr. Jeff Bell, was a no-show.  At the request of several listeners, rather than canceling the  program, I let it run as a special Open Lines show.  There were no breaks in the discussion.  Our first caller in this 1 hour 53 minute discussion was Dwayne who inquired about my frequent comments on the need for a business plan and due diligence in evaluating potential space businesses.  I offered to send interested listeners a copy of the business plan outline I work from if they email and request it.  We went through the business plan outline I use, then we talked about due diligence for all aspects of the venture including management, financial, marketing, technology, engineering, and more.  Dwayne wanted to know about possible market saturation for the low barrier to entry cubesats and Earth imaging satellites now entering the market place.  Doug was the next caller.  He had wanted to talk with Dr. Bell about an older paper of his showing skepticism for the COTS program which Doug believes to be successful.  The discussion with Doug was too long so callers, you need to be succinct, consolidate your comments and questions, and don’t expect unlimited time for your call.  As they say, “this was my bad” to have let the call go on for so long and I apologize to those of you who got tired of waiting to call the show and just logged out.  The discussion with Doug included how to assess the likely success of a business venture, management, and more.  We used both Mars One and SpaceX as examples.  Charles then called to talk about his book Microlaunchers and The Space Review’s book review of it by Dr. Jeff Foust. You can read the review at www.thespacereview.com/article/2461/1.  Our last caller was Tony who challenged the electric car comments made by Charles and me.  Tony wanted to advocate for green technology, solar, etc.  I apologize for how I talked to and handled Tony’s call.  Because I did not agree with him was no excuse for my being rude and I will do my best to not let that happen again.  Tony and I disagree on these issues which is fine by my book.  Most of the time listeners don’t know my own thoughts on lots of the topics discussed on TSS so you have no clue if I concur or not with what is being said, but I did engage Tony & I should have been more respectful with him.  I understand the validity of the points he was making though I dispute that any of that is reality at this time in the U.S.  We ended this special program by pointing out that our regular March OL show is Tuesday, March 4.  I will make an announcement when I can reschedule Dr. Bell.

Please post your comments/questions on TSS blog above. If you want to reach any of our callers or emailiers, you can do so through me.

 

Richard David, Thursday, 11-7-13 November 8, 2013

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Richard David, Thursday, 11-7-13

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/2117-BWB-2013-11-07.mp3

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Guest:  Richard David.   Topics:  Commercial space business evaluation, NewSpace emerging industry with winners.  Please direct all comments and questions regarding Space Show programs/guest(s) to the Space Show blog, https://thespaceshow.wordpress.com. Comments and questions should be relevant to the specific Space Show program. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are a violation of our copyright and are not permitted without prior written consent, even if for your own use. We do not permit the commercial use of Space Show programs or any part thereof, nor do we permit editing, YouTube clips, or clips placed on other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted, but the quote must be cited or referenced using the proper citation format. Contact The Space Show for further information. In addition, please remember that your Amazon purchases can help support The Space Show/OGLF. See www.onegiantleapfoundation.org/amazon.htm.

We welcomed Richard David back to the show for this special Thursday one hour discussion about NewSpace industry evaluations and the recently held NewSpace Investor Conference.  Richard started out talking about the event and the focus on markets and investors.  Other topics included the essentials of building a viable business and the evaluations of emerging entrepreneurial companies by NewSpace Global (NSG) in the various lists and reports (see www.newspaceglobal.com).  Richard talked about the variety of companies participating in the event ranging from SpaceX to very small startups and emerging companies.  He said the group was very diverse representing all aspects of commercial space development and management styles.  Richard then named several companies as examples.  We talked about timelines for NewSpace company development and at one point I asked him to compare NewSpace timelines to Twitter which had just gone public.  Twitter was started in March 2006 and we talked about the differences in challenges and other issues giving NewSpace longer timelines.  I asked Richard to talk about commercial development over the past three years, what makes it different today from three years ago, and do we need a Netscape moment or steady growth.  Richard was asked to tell us the major challenges or hurdles he believes exists for these emerging companies.  He listed and discussed four such challenges.  You might be surprised to find out that regulatory challenges were not among his top four hurdles.  Toward the end of our discussion, I asked about business opportunities for human spaceflight.  I also inquired about entrepreneurial opportunities from outside the U.S.  Richard said 75% of the activity comes from with the United States.

Please post your comments/questions on The Space Show blog above. Richard can be contacted through his website.

Frank Stratford, Friday, 5-17-13 May 18, 2013

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Frank Stratford, Friday, 5-17-13

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/2010-BWB-2013-05-17.mp3

Guest:  Frank Stratford.  Topics:  Commercial space and space travel business models and revenue generation.  Please direct all comments and questions regarding Space Show programs/guest(s) to the Space Show blog, https://thespaceshow.wordpress.com.  Comments and questions should be relevant to the specific Space Show program. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are a violation of our copyright and are not permitted without prior written consent, even if for your own use. We do not permit the commercial use of Space Show programs or any part thereof, nor do we permit editing, YouTube clips, or clips placed on other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted, but the quote must be cited or referenced using the proper citation format. Contact The Space Show for further information.

We welcomed Frank Stratford back to the program to discuss various commercial space business models, including nonspace revenue generating goals and objectives.  Frank is the founder of MarsDrive so for more information, visit their website at www.marsdrive.com.  During the first segment of our 1 hour 42 minute program, Frank introduced us to the topic in his April 22, 2013 Space Review article, “The Business of Space Travel” (www.thespacereview.com/article/2281/1).  Frank talked about the need to generate nonspace revenue while building up the space company & space revenue R&D, activities, & markets.  He cited SpaceX, Bigelow, & Blue Origins as examples.  This led to a discussion about markets & financing, plus estimated costs for a human spaceflight mission to Mars. Frank compared the Mars One $6 billion estimate to his own estimate from his research to be $15 billion.  Our first caller asked if big name investors associated with these early commercial space ventures created an expectation of success and may in fact turn out to not have been such a good idea.  The detailed discussion included ROI, Stratolaunch and the revenue cycle gap from up front/early capital needs to revenue generation later on in the project’s cycle.  We talked about the nonprofit or charity model and Inspiration Mars came to mind.  I entered the discussion with comments about the need for repeat customers, a commercial space success to model, unrealistic assumptions, the lack of due diligence, and the difficulty in cost estimates, especially when the cost of getting to the destination (the Moon for example) is unknown at this time.  Surrey Space & Technology was also brought up as an example of a good business to model.

In the second segment, our called pointed out a Moon & Back interview with Robert Bigelow in which our caller said Bob said he went into the r/e business to fund his space activities.  Later, he email in additional comments suggesting that just because a space venture or idea is not funded does not mean it’s a bad idea or concept. He then advocated NASA support such as with COTS and Commercial Crew.  Public/private partnerships were advocated as a good way to move forward with space development and exploration.  Frank was then asked if a failed commercial project would hurt the industry.  He said it was possible.  Another question came in regarding paying attention to human factors and if solutions would be available at the same time as engineering technology, financing, and maybe markets.  Frank said only if work moved forward on human factor solutions at the same time and at a similar rate.  He also advocated his own organization working the problems.  Listen to his reasoning behind this.  As the program was nearing close, Frank was asked if Curiosity found proof of life in the past or now, even the most basic life, if it would make HSF to Mars more of a priority.  Don’t miss Frank’s response.  In summary, Frank talked about the need for continuous incremental development.

Please post your comments/questions on The Space Show blog above.  If you want to email Frank Stratford, you can do so through me at drspace@thespaceshow.com.