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Wayne Eleazer, Monday, 11-16-15 November 17, 2015

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Wayne Eleazer, Monday, 11-16-15

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/2586-BWB-2015-11-16.mp3

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Guest:  Wayne Eleazer. Topics:  Launch failures and why they happen.  Please direct all comments and questions regarding Space Show programs/guest(s) to the Space Show blog, https://thespaceshow.wordpress.com.  Comments and questions should be relevant to the specific Space Show program. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are a violation of our copyright and are not permitted without prior written consent, even if for your own use. We do not permit the commercial use of Space Show programs or any part thereof, nor do we permit editing, YouTube clips, or clips placed on other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted, but the quote must be cited or referenced using the proper citation format. Contact The Space Show for further information. In addition, please remember that your Amazon purchases can help support The Space Show/OGLF. See www.onegiantleapfoundation.org/amazon.htm.  For those listening to archives using live365.com and rating the programs, please email me as to why you assign a specific rating to the show. This will help me bring better programming to the audience.

We welcomed Wayne Eleazer to the show to discuss the history and why of rocket launch failures per the many articles he has written over the years on these subjects for The Space Review.  In the first segment of our 1 hour 58 minute discussion, Wayne started us off responding to my question about the most dramatic launch failure he has seen or studied.  He talked about a spectacular Titan failure so don’t miss his story.  Michael Listner called and talked about many topics including Air Force mishap reports.  What Wayne had to say about the mishap reports and the Air Force candor regarding launch failures was very interesting and informative.  Wayne introduced us to the Oops Factor regarding failures, a concept he used in an earlier Space Review article.  This refers to one thing causing the launch failure but the people down the line with oversight responsibility all miss it or “oops!”  SpaceX and the Falcon 9 problems came up many times but here Wayne talked about the needed culture in a company to deal with launch failures, learn from them, and work to keep them from happening again.  He thought SpaceX was doing all of that.  He also talked about Orbital ATK and the Antares and their culture, then I asked him about the SpaceShip2 failure/accident.  Near the end of the first segment, Jay asked Wayne if military rockets had similar launch failure problems.  Wayne’s response about the military rocket motor, its reliability, testing, and costs was most illuminating.  As we learned, the military rocket motor stands alone in quality.

In the second segment, Wayne was asked if he could spot trends that cause launch failures over and over again.  He said no but listen to his complete answer.  He called this the “Predictables” and is completing a new Space Review article on this subject.  He listed several examples including his use of the Challenger loss as well as Delta and Atlas failures.  I asked him if on the military side, there were consequences for military personnel with responsibility and oversight duties, maybe a demotion, court martial, anything.  You might be surprised by his answer to this question.  We talked more about the Falcon 9 and EELVs in this segment, plus the old Thor and the Atlas.  Barry asked Wayne about Russian launch failures.  Wayne talked about the Russian culture and problems.  Near the end, he said EELV reliability was improving.  He made some additional Atlas and Falcon 9 comparisons, then I asked if there was an expected failure rate for these rockets.  Wayne suggested if a company survives ten launches, their odds for survival improve greatly.  Doug asked about fairing issues. Wayne talked about the ways that a fairing can open up and we talked about the recent Taurus failures due to fairing problems.  Doug followed up his question asking about the reliability for the Falcon Heavy.  Wayne had much to say about reliability and strap on rockets &the odds of a failure by strapping rockets together.  You might be surprised by what he said.  I asked him about modular all purpose, all mission rockets, complexity vs. simplicity, small start-up launch operations and the SLS.  In concluding the show, he talked about the value in understanding launch failures.  He talked about education on launch failures and why it has been so hard for people to be open minded and learn from rocket failures.  At one point, he mentioned an older German rocket company building an ugly pipe rocket, OTRAG.

Please post your comments/questions on TSS blog.  You can reach Wayne through me.

John Batchelor Show Hotel Mars, Wednesday, 11-5-14 November 6, 2014

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John Batchelor Show Hotel Mars, Wednesday, 11-5-14

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/2350-BWB-2014-11-05.mp3

Featuring Dr. Jeff Foust; Doug Messier

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Guests: John Batchelor, Dr. Jeff Foust, Doug Messier, Dr. David Livingston. Topics:  Topics:  The Antares rocket failure and the SpaceShipTwo accident. You are invited to comment, ask questions, and discuss the Space Show program/guest(s) on the Space Show blog. Comments, questions, and any discussion must be relevant and applicable to Space Show programming. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are not permitted without prior written consent from The Space Show (even if for personal use) & are a violation of the Space Show copyright. We do not permit the commercial use of any Space Show program or part thereof, nor do we permit Space Show programs to be edited, placed on YouTube, or other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted in news articles, papers, academic & research work but must be cited or referenced in the proper citation format. Contact Dr. Livingston for questions about our copyright and trademark policies which we do enforce. This program is archived on The Space Show website, podcasting, and blog sites with permission from John Batchelor. Please visit the John Batchelor Show website for more information about this fine program, www.johnbatchelorshow.com.  Remember, your Amazon Purchases Can Help Support The Space Show/OGLF (www.onegiantleapfoundation.org/amazon.htm).  For those of you listening to archives on live365.com & rating the programs, please email me the reasons for your rating. This will definitely help improve Space Show programming. Thank you.

 

John Batchelor and I welcomed Dr. Jeff Foust for the first ten minutes of our special edition Hotel Mars program. Our second guest was Doug Messier for the second half of the program.  During the first segment with Dr. Foust, we talked about the latest news on the recent Orbital Sciences Antares rocket failure.  It seems that Orbital Sciences is going to phase out the AJ26 rocket motor, replace it with a yet unidentified motor, and possibly do some short term launches of cargo to the ISS on an alternative rocket.  In the second segment, Doug Messier of www.parabolicarc.com was our guest to discuss the latest news regarding the SpaceShipTwo accident.  Doug talked about the NTSB investigation and disclosure about the on-off switch for the vehicles feather system, we talked about Virgin Galactic safety and the type of data that was collected which will assist the NTSB in the investigation.

 

Please post any comments/questions you might have on The Space Show blog. You can contact any of  us through me.

Anatoly Zak, Tuesday, 9-3-13 September 4, 2013

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Anatoly Zak, Tuesday, 9-3-13

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/2080-BWB-2013-09-03.mp3

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Guest:  Anatoly Zak.  Topics:  The Soviet & Russian space program, his incredible new book!  Please direct all comments and questions regarding Space Show programs/guest(s) to the Space Show blog, https://thespaceshow.wordpress.com.  Comments and questions should be relevant to the specific Space Show program. Written Transcripts of Space Show programs are a violation of our copyright and are not permitted without prior written consent, even if for your own use. We do not permit the commercial use of Space Show programs or any part thereof, nor do we permit editing, YouTube clips, or clips placed on other private channels & websites. Space Show programs can be quoted, but the quote must be cited or referenced using the proper citation format. Contact The Space Show for further information. In addition, please remember that your Amazon purchases can help support The Space Show/OGLF. See www.onegiantleapfoundation.org/amazon.htm.

We welcomed Anatoly Zak as a first time guest to The Space Show and we promise, he will return as a regular guest on the show!  Make sure you check out his website, www.russianspaceweb.com.  Anatoly was with us to talk about his new book published by Apogee Prime, Russia In space: the Past Explained the Future Explored.  I assure you that the praise you will hear from me and others throughout our discussion about this book is an understatement as this is one of the very best space books I have been fortunate to read and have as a permanent reference book.  Remember, if you get this book through Amazon using the OGLF portal, Amazon donates a percentage of the sale to The Space Show.  Amazon OGLF instructions are on our website, the OGLF website, the archives, and the blog archives but email me if you have questions.  In the first segment of our 1 hour 38 minute program, we talked about the production of this book which took our guest 3-4 years to complete.  I then asked Mr. Zak for the Russian perspective of the success of Apollo 11.  I pointed out some fascinating Soviet/Russian hardware pictures in the book such as the predecessor of Dream Chaser.  Todd asked about the durability of the Soyuz and all weather capability of Russian rockets compared to American rockets.  Next, I asked Anatoly about the commercial, NewSpace effort to buy the Mir Space Station and send Dennis Tito to it as the first space tourist.  You have to listen to what Anatoly told us.  This is a very different story from what we have heard from others on The Space Show, including those that I have talked with who were part of the effort to save, buy, and operate Mir.  Even when Dr. Lurio called in at the beginning of the second segment, Charles was as surprised at the new information as I was and we joked about talking to our friends who were involved in the effort. As you will hear, I told Charles several time he could run with it, I will sit on the sidelines.  But all kidding aside, don’t miss this discussion.  I then asked Anatoly about the effort to use a Soyuz to fly passengers to the Moon, orbit it, and return home. Again, a totally different story than what many of us have heard.  No way he said.  All PR fluff and more.  Don’t miss this exchange. Dwayne wanted to know the actual percentage of operating costs the Americans and tourists pay when they ride the Soyuz to the ISS.  Anatoly did not know the exact percentage but said the Russian program was much healthier financially today and could stand on its own without this revenue.  Recent Russian rocket failures came up and our guest talked about the need for serious improvement in Russian quality control.  Near the end of the first segment, I asked if Putin liked the space program or if the Russian program suffered a similar fate as the American program with the White House and most inside the Beltway.  As you will hear, Putin is a fan of the space program, Russia has increased its space budget, and they treat space differently than we do.  John called in to ask about nuclear energy and propulsion in the Russian program. Anatoly updated us on nuclear power usage in space but not for propulsion.

We started the second segment with the call from Dr. Lurio. He asked about the Angara rocket program which was designed to replace the Proton.  He then asked about the entrepreneurial effort in Russia as compared to the States.  Another listener emailed in questions about the Buran program and espionage.  Dwayne called back to ask about the Russian and Chinese oceanic surveillance satellites.  I then asked Mr. Zak to discuss the Russian and Chinese cooperation and relationship with their two space programs, if such a relationship exists.  Our next topic focused on Anatoly’s perspective of NASA and SLS.  He had much to say about designing and building rockets, the eventual payload, and mission.  He said we do not have a productive program in place for SLS, then we talked about learning the lessons of history which he said was hard to do for both the Russians and Americans.  I also asked Anatoly for his thoughts on NewSpace which he said was important but not able to do enough significant things which for now only government can do. Tim called in just under the wire (as usual) to inquire about a rocket capable of multiple payloads and various missions.  Anatoly told him why this does not work.  Tim then asked our guest about fuel depots, cryogenic transfer, and storable fuels.  Sean from Little Rock wanted to hear what Anatoly thought about Mars One.  Anatoly said such missions were unrealistic and not serious regarding engineering or equipment. Near the end, we got questions about Russians and UFOs, the movie Space Cowboys, tracking items in space, and Russian space advocacy.

Please post comments/questions on The Space Show blog. You can reach Anatoly through me or his website.

The John Batchelor Show “Hotel Mars,” Wednesday, 9-19-12 September 20, 2012

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The John Batchelor Show “Hotel Mars,” Wednesday, 9-19-12

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/1857-BWB-2012-09-19.mp3

Guests:  John Batchelor, Taylor Dinerman, Dr. David Livingston:  Topics:  Russian rocket, safety and launch problems to the ISS.  You are invited to comment, ask questions, and discuss the Space Show program/guest(s) on the Space Show blog, https://thespaceshow.wordpress.com. Comments, questions, and any discussion must be relevant and applicable to Space Show programming. Written transcripts of Space Show programs are not permitted without prior written consent from The Space Show (even if for personal use) & are a violation of the Space Show copyright. This program is archived on The Space Show website, podcasting, and blog sites with permission from John Batchelor. Please visit the John Batchelor Show website for more information about this fine program, www.johnbatchelorshow.com. During our 11.5 minute discussion, Mr. Dinerman addressed the problems that exist in the Russian rocket industry today causing safety concerns for Soyuz crew flights to the ISS.  Taylor noted the employment, pay, retention, and maintenance issues faced by the Russians as well as the risks inherent in human spaceflight.  We also talked about the possibility of speeding up the human rating for the American commercial crew companies.

If you want to email John Batchelor or Taylor Dinerman about this discussion, please send your note to me and I will forward it to the person of your choice.  Please post any comments/questions you might have about this discussion on The Space Show blog.

 

Steve Bouley, Wednesday, 1-18-12 January 19, 2012

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Steve Bouley, Wednesday, 1-18-12

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/1692-BWB-2012-01-18.mp3

Guest:  Steve Bouley.  Topics:  Wideband Global SATCOM launch, Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne engines, hypersonics, commercial space markets & more.  You are invited to comment, ask questions, and discuss the Space Show program/guest(s) on the Space Show blog, https://thespaceshow.wordpress.com.  Comments, questions, and any discussion must be relevant and applicable to Space Show programming. Transcripts of Space Show programs are not permitted without prior written consent from The Space Show (even if for personal use) & are a violation of the Space Show copyright.  We welcomed Steve Bouley of Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne (PWR) to discuss the Delta IV medium launch of the DOD Wideband Global SATCOM (WGS) communication satellite, hypersonics, lowing the cost of access to space, rocket safety and more.  We started our discussion with a focus on the Jan. 19th 7:38 PM EST launch of WGS on the Delta IV medium which uses PWR RS-68 and RL10B-2 engines.  Mr. Bouley provided us with thrust specs for the engines.  He also went over the very impressive and highly successful track record for their engines and fielded questions about their manufacturing and quality control process.  This took us to our next subject, equating reliability with experience and then understanding that the launch market is relatively flat with low launch rates which causes higher launch prices.  There were several listener questions during this special one hour interview.  The questions focused on human rating the rockets and what PWR would have to do to their engines to have them fly people to space.  Don’t miss Steve’s response to this line of questioning.  We talked some more about the flat demand and Steve was asked if PWR could easily and quickly ramp up their production line were demand to change quickly.  The short answer was “yes.”  We talked about hypersonics and the evolution of technology development.  We also talked about the likely path to commercial operation for a hypersonic vehicle.  Our guest took a call from Jerry about SLS, SRBs, the Saturn V, and bringing back the F1A engine.  Mike sent in a note asking about safety issues for a jet engine as compared to a rocket engine.  Toward the end, our guest was asked to provide the very early history of PWR and rocket engine development.  As our program drew to a close, I asked Steve to tell us about his work on launch day and if he still gets excited about a launch given he has seen hundreds of them during his career.  Post your comments/questions on The Space Show blog URL above.

Dr. Louis Friedman, Monday, 1-9-12 January 10, 2012

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Dr. Louis Friedman, Monday, 1-9-12

http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/1686-BWB-2012-01-09.mp3

Guest:  Dr. Lou Friedman.  Topics:  The Planetary Society LightSail Program, solar sails and more. You are invited to comment, ask questions, and discuss the Space Show program/guest(s) on the Space Show blog, https://thespaceshow.wordpress.com. Comments, questions, and any discussion must be relevant and applicable to Space Show programming. Transcripts of Space Show programs are not permitted without prior written consent from The Space Show (even if for personal use) & are a violation of the Space Show copyright.  We welcomed Dr. Louis Friedman back to the show to discuss solar sails and his recent articles in The Space Review titled “Mind Expansion,” Nov. 21, 2011 and “The Dangers of a Rocket To Nowhere,” May 23, 2011.  We started our one hour discussion with Dr. Friedman talking about solar sails and recent Planetary Society solar sail missions.  Dr. Friedman gave us the basics on solar sails and explained the interest and commitment to their demo solar sail efforts and the LightSail Program.  Listeners asked technical questions about solar sails, the materials used, and the radiation degradation of the materials.  We talked about using only sunlight for the solar sail energy, but in the future being able to use onboard lasers and even the light from distant stars.  We talked about the Phobos-Grunt mission as The Planetary Society had an experiment onboard, the Living Interplanetary Flight Experiment (LIFE).  Dr. Friedman described this microbial experiment and the titanium capsule it was in with the possibility of its being able to survive reentry and even being recovered though the odds are clearly against that happening. We talked liability issues regarding the debris, including LIFE, doing damage upon returning to Earth.  Both Dr. Friedman and attorney Michael Listener who called in said that primary liability was with Russia based on the OST.   The SLS came up as Dr. Friedman wrote about it in his above mentioned Space Review article.   In talking about SLS, we spoke about mediocrity in space policy, specifically human spaceflight.  I asked Dr. Friedman about the importance of connecting with the general public regarding HSF and how we could do a better job of it than what we are currently doing.  I then asked Dr. Friedman to comment on his excellent “Mind Expansion” Space Review article which you can read at www.thespacereview.com/article/1973/1.  We talked about the need to think big, issues facing space entrepreneurs, and a needed bridge between traditional commercial interests for entrepreneurs and thinking big and doing the new and innovative, especially if the business case is tentative or illusive.  Listeners asked Dr. Friedman about today’s college students and if they were being trained to think big.  As we closed in on the end of our hour discussion, I asked Lou if he thought space would be an issue in this year’s presidential campaign.  He did not think it would be an issue.  In our second segment which was to be Open Lines, I made an error in editing the show and lost the 50 minute segment.  However, during this brief OL segment, I went over some of the key upcoming Space Show programs.  Michael Listener called in to talk about the Chinese space policy.  Not only did we addressChina and space, but I also brought into the mix some ofChina’s economic and banking issues which may impact their space progress. Terry Picket called in regarding my comment about asking for help in coming up with a new template for the email newsletter and my time zone comment.  He offered us a time zone tool from the net and we talked about it and the various time zones across theUnited States includingAlaska andHawaii.  I regret having accidentally cut this segment and I apologize to Michael, Terry and all of you for not being able to bring this segment to you.  If you have questions/comments regarding the discussion with Dr. Friedman, please post them on The Space Show blog per the above URL.